Sweden’s Centre-Left Leads Exit Polls as Far-Right Gains Remain in Question

Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc, headed by Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson, took an early lead in the country’s parliamentary election on Sunday, according to exit polls released by broadcaster SVT. The bloc secured 51.3% of the projected vote, with a separate poll by TV4 confirming the trend.

Early official results from the Swedish Election Authority are anticipated within hours. However, historical precedent suggests caution; in 2022, exit polls predicted a centre-left victory, but the election was ultimately won by the right-wing coalition led by current Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.

A win for the right-wing bloc would mark the first time the far-right Sweden Democrats enter government. In the SVT reading, the party polled at 17.2%. The vote is widely viewed as a referendum on the party, which has roots in the neo-Nazi fringe, and will determine whether the nation of 10.6 million continues its recent rightward shift or returns to its traditional liberal stance.

Polling throughout the campaign indicated a narrow centre-left advantage, but Kristersson, who has trailed in opinion surveys for most of his four years in office, narrowed the gap in the final weeks. Andersson and the Social Democrats consequently lost ground as the election approached.

Critics of the current administration argue that Kristersson’s government is eroding civil liberties and enforcing stricter cultural conformity on immigrants, utilizing both incentives and penalties to enforce these norms. An electoral breakthrough for the Sweden Democrats would likely be celebrated by far-right parties across Europe, which have seen recent successes such as the win by the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany in a German state election.

European far-right movements are now looking ahead to significant contests, including the French presidential election next year, which they view as their most substantial opportunity yet.