Poll: Maine Senate Race Deadlocked as Voters Weigh State vs. National Issues

A CBS News/YouGov survey conducted between September 23 and October 1 reveals a statistically dead heat in Maine’s U.S. Senate contest, pitting incumbent Republican Susan Collins against Democratic challenger Troy Jackson. The findings highlight a statewide electorate that remains distinct from the broader national political currents currently favoring Democrats.

Collins appears to have neutralized the state’s Democratic lean by attracting approximately one in five voters who disapprove of President Trump—a rate significantly higher than what Republican congressional candidates are achieving on a national scale. This ability to peel off dissenting Trump voters, combined with strong support from those prioritizing local issues over national debates, has kept the race level.

The race is characterized as highly competitive, with 10% of registered voters indicating they remain undecided. This fluidity suggests the outcome could shift depending on final campaigning dynamics. Collins also demonstrates resilience among long-time constituents, particularly those who have voted for her multiple times, countering the typical headwinds faced by incumbents in so-called “anti-incumbent” election cycles.

Jackson’s base is driven largely by voters concerned about Collins’ alignment with Trump, those opposed to tariffs, and individuals seeking change rather than experience. He also leads among voters who believe current Trump policies have damaged the Maine economy. However, he faces a significant hurdle in primary fatigue; four in ten Democrats and a majority of independents expressed a desire for a different Democratic nominee following the primary season.

In terms of economic perception, while many voters feel Trump’s policies have hurt the local economy, Collins still captures nearly one in five voters who believe Jackson’s policies would improve their financial situation. Additionally, Jackson trails Democratic gubernatorial nominee Hannah Pingree, whose numbers align more closely with the state’s partisan preferences. Pingree draws some support from crossover voters who are splitting their tickets to back Collins.

The survey included a representative sample of 1,144 registered Maine voters, weighted by gender, age, race, education, and 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error for registered voters is ±4.7 percentage points.