The Trump administration has initiated work on a comprehensive post-war strategy for the Middle East, aiming to recalibrate the region’s balance of power by intensifying pressure on Tehran and advancing diplomatic normalization between Israel and its neighbors. According to a report by Axios citing four US officials and sources familiar with the matter, the framework could define American policy in the region through the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term.
The strategy rests on three primary pillars. The first involves building a “regional alignment” among US allies to deter and constrain Iranian influence. The second focuses on mitigating the regional consequences stemming from the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. The third pillar seeks to expand the Abraham Accords, with a particular emphasis on achieving normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Discussions regarding the plan are expected to be influenced by the upcoming US midterm elections and Israel’s legislative polls scheduled for October. Potential elements under consideration include the US acting as a guarantor for the proposed regional alignment, negotiating a security agreement with Syria, and executing the next phase of Trump’s Gaza reconstruction plan.
While the concept of strengthening ties with Gulf states to counter Tehran is not new—having been a goal of successive administrations since the 1979 Iranian Revolution—Washington appears intent on formalizing these efforts into a structured security framework. This push comes against the backdrop of what US officials view as a significant shift in the regional balance of power following the Iran war.
Normalising relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia has long been a US objective, yet progress has stalled because Riyadh insists on tangible advancements toward a Palestinian state and a resolution in Gaza. These efforts build upon the Abraham Accords, signed in 2020 during Trump’s first term, which established ties between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan.
The second pillar addresses the fallout from the October 7 attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza through three potential avenues. These include implementing the next stage of Trump’s Gaza plan, which involves reconstruction and the disarmament of Hamas; forging a security deal with Syria amid sweeping political changes following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in late 2024; and enforcing an agreement with Lebanon to limit Hezbollah’s military capabilities.
Tensions remain high along the Israel-Lebanon border, with Israel accusing Hezbollah of rebuilding its arsenal in violation of a 2024 ceasefire deal, while Lebanon continues to report Israeli airstrikes on its territory.
A final version of the strategy has not yet been completed. One source described the process to Axios as still in the early stages, stating, “They are cooking it, but it is not yet cooked.” The source added that while the goal is to integrate various regional initiatives, it remains uncertain whether all US allies in the area will support the proposed alignment.
This seems ambitious, but getting Saudi Arabia to the table is a massive hurdle. Hope it actually works.
Why is Iran always the priority? What about the immediate humanitarian crisis in Gaza for civilians?
They keep using this exact same formula. How many more ‘frameworks’ do we need before real change happens?
Cueing the midterms! Let’s see if this political timing actually helps or hurts the negotiation leverage.