Tesla is generating anticipation ahead of a long-awaited update to its Cybercab, utilizing social media teasers highlighting the vehicle’s lack of a steering wheel and pedals. The event has drawn significant scrutiny from investors and analysts who view the company’s progress toward fully autonomous driving as a critical factor for future valuation.
According to tracker data, Tesla’s so-called “unsupervised” vehicles have already completed trips in several major metropolitan areas, including Austin, Dallas, and Houston, as well as Miami, Orlando, and Tampa in Florida. Additionally, the company operates a chartered rideshare service in the San Francisco Bay Area known as the FSD (Supervised) Rideshare service. These operations utilize newer Model Y vehicles piloted by Tesla employees using an internal, non-public version of the company’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) technology, which customers can hail via the Tesla Robotaxi-branded application.
In a recent research note, analysts at Morgan Stanley indicated that Tesla’s shares could regain upward momentum if the upcoming event features a substantive rollout of unsupervised driving capabilities. Conversely, they cautioned that a disappointing presentation could lead to muted or negative market reactions. Tesla stock has declined approximately 21% year-to-date through Wednesday’s close. The firm maintains a hold rating on the stock with a $400 price target, emphasizing that continued expansion of the unsupervised fleet—whether via Cybercab or Model Y—is essential for outperforming the market through the end of the year.
Public records from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles show that as of Wednesday night, Tesla held authorization for driverless operations on 45 Cybercab vehicles in Texas, out of a total of 420 registered vehicles in the state. Meanwhile, competitor Waymo continues to expand its commercial robotaxi presence, operating a fleet of roughly 4,000 driverless vehicles across 14 U.S. cities and testing in additional markets.
Despite the commercial ambitions, Tesla faces regulatory headwinds. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is currently conducting at least two ongoing investigations into possible safety defects related to Tesla’s partially automated driving systems. Furthermore, the automaker has faced criticism for requesting extensive redactions on crash reports, a move that effectively limits public access to safety data compared to other autonomous vehicle manufacturers.
Waymo has 4,000 vehicles. Tesla needs to stop teasing and start delivering. Investors are getting tired of waiting.
NHTSA investigations are no joke. Can they really claim ‘no pedals’ is safe without more transparent crash data?
Morgan Stanley’s $400 target feels conservative if they actually roll this out. A meaningful event could move the needle significantly.
Autonomous driving in Texas and Florida sounds promising, but I’m skeptical about unsupervised rides without seeing more real-world proof.