Sanaa, Yemen – The Yemeni government’s latest military campaign against Houthi forces is testing more than just battlefield dynamics; it hinges on whether the internationally recognized administration can convince powerful tribes in Houthi-controlled territories to shift their allegiance. For years, tribes hostile or suspicious of the Iran-backed group have refrained from open confrontation, deterred by Houthi military dominance and the memory of previous failed uprisings.
These tribes are now closely watching the government’s newly activated frontlines, particularly along the Red Sea coast, Marib, and al-Jawf. They are assessing whether the limited territorial gains achieved since the launch of the “Dawn of Yemen” operation this week can evolve into sustained momentum.
The government offensive comes in response to significant Houthi advances in September, when the group, also known as Ansar Allah, seized control of vital trade routes along the Red Sea coast, including the port city of Mocha and areas near the strategically crucial Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
While recent airstrikes have inflicted casualties on Houthi fighters, pushing back toward entrenched strongholds in Sanaa, Saada, and Amran remains a daunting task. However, experts suggest that the government’s declaration of all-out war and pledge to recapture the capital may reduce tribal distrust, encouraging them to act at the opportune moment.
The role of tribes could be decisive in enabling government troops to penetrate deeper into Houthi-held areas. On Monday, a large tribal rally in Marib governorate—the government’s northern stronghold—saw sheikhs and anti-Houthi fighters from tribes such as the Jadan and Nihm announce a general mobilization to support armed forces in “toppling the Houthi coup.”
Adel Dashela, a researcher at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, noted that if this support translates into sustained participation, tribes will play a key role in advancing toward the Houthi heartland. “Tribal fighters remain indispensable to any future campaign against the Houthis,” Dashela said, adding that their engagement must occur through formal state and coalition command structures rather than as an independent vanguard.
Abdulsalam Mohammed, chairman of the Yemeni Abaad Studies and Research Center, emphasized that tribes are “waiting for the right time” to avoid repeating past mistakes. He recalled the 2019 conflict between the Houthis and the Hajoor tribe in Hajjah, where rebel tribes were crushed despite limited external aid from Saudi Arabia.
“Those tribes revolted against the Houthis, and they were crushed amid the absence of the government’s effective role,” Mohammed said. He added that even tribes currently supportive of the Houthis might gradually shift allegiances if they perceive the government as serving their interests.
Over the past decade, the Houthis have weakened traditional tribal authority by co-opting leaders, replacing dissenters with loyalists, and employing a mix of military force, financial incentives, and political messaging tied to the Palestinian cause. A northern Yemeni tribal sheikh told Al Jazeera that Houthi military “supremacy” has overshadowed the political and military role of tribes, leaving them subordinate to the group.
The sheikh cautioned that reported government gains should not be interpreted as signs of Houthi collapse. “A concrete government advance on the battlefields would reassure some Yemeni tribes that the Houthis have lost ground,” he said. “Once this materialises, anti-Houthi and neutral tribes can feel confident and begin confronting the group.”
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