When the leaders of BRICS gather at the Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi this Saturday for their 18th summit, the group of emerging economies will face significant internal divisions despite their shared goal of constructing an alternative to the American-led global order. While President Donald Trump’s reluctance to embrace traditional postwar leadership roles has opened new avenues for the bloc, its ambitions are severely constrained by the misaligned interests of its founding members: India, China, Russia, and Brazil.
As the host nation, India aims to achieve substantial outcomes without straining its critical relationship with Washington. New Delhi views its ties with the United States as a vital counterweight to China’s growing influence across Asia and beyond. Consequently, India has joined Brazil in resisting proposals from Moscow and Beijing for a unified BRICS currency and increased lending to Russia, which remains under international sanctions.
Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping is utilizing the summit to bolster Beijing’s image as a stable and predictable global force. This event follows a series of diplomatic engagements, including a prominent role at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kyrgyzstan, mediation efforts in Egypt regarding the Middle East conflict, and an upcoming state visit to the White House. Xi intends to promote alternatives to the US dollar’s dominance through expanded non-dollar lending channels and greater use of the renminbi, although India has historically opposed such moves.
Observers will closely monitor the interaction between Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, given recent violent border clashes between the two nations. However, both leaders are expected to maintain a cordial public facade. India seeks a successful summit as the host, while China, which takes over presidency duties next year, desires a positive atmosphere to project itself as a mature global leader.
Russia continues to seek diplomatic and economic support for its stalled war in Ukraine, while Brazil looks to strengthen its economic ties and reaffirm its commitment to the bloc. However, Brazil’s participation faces uncertainty due to potential changes in leadership; some analysts fear that a victory by Flavio Bolsonaro in next month’s presidential election could weaken the country’s dedication to BRICS.
The inclusion of newer members such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates adds further complexity. While Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE leader Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan are expected to send lower-ranking officials, their nations’ presence introduces fresh tensions, particularly regarding how the summit addresses the war in Ukraine. The final communiqué’s language may differ from the implicit criticism of the US and Israel seen in recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization documents.
Ultimately, BRICS is unlikely to evolve into an anti-Western power bloc in the near term. Its influence is already limited by the rivalry between China and India, as well as divergent economic interests regarding energy prices—Russia and Brazil, as exporters, favor higher prices, whereas importers China and India prefer lower costs. Furthermore, the bloc now encompasses key US treaty allies and partners, including Indonesia, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, who aim to hedge against an unpredictable America while preserving stable relationships with the global superpower.
Seems optimistic to think America faces no challenge. BRICS may be divided now, but that could shift quickly with changing global economics.
The energy price contradiction between Russia and India always amazes me. You cannot be friends with both producers and importers of oil.
I wonder if the internal tensions will become public at this summit, or will they keep the fragile alliance together through vague communiques?
India playing both sides is the real story here. New Delhi clearly prioritizes its US partnership over any ideological BRICS unity.