Prior to the US midterm elections on November 7, Iran is carefully navigating a path of measured escalation, seeking to impose costs on Washington without triggering an all-out war. This strategic balance comes as President Donald Trump asserts that the conflict will conclude immediately following the election due to the inability of Iranian leaders to sustain further fighting.
Speaking at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, Texas, Trump characterized the upcoming vote as one of the most significant of their lives. He reaffirmed his justification for initiating military actions, citing the prevention of an Iranian nuclear capability, and promised that oil prices would drop once the US achieved victory. However, with Brent crude oil surging past $100 per barrel and recent US strikes on Iranian oil tankers in response to attacks on a US warship, rising fuel costs pose a potential electoral liability for Republicans.
Middle East analyst Mohammad Ghaedi from George Washington University notes that Iran views escalation as a tool for coercive diplomacy rather than a final objective. “The regime wants to demonstrate that it can threaten US forces and disrupt maritime traffic, but it also wants to keep the confrontation below a threshold that could trigger a much larger American response,” Ghaedi explained, pointing to the relatively limited number of missiles fired at US naval vessels as evidence of this controlled approach.
Tehran’s preferred outcome appears to be a restoration of the Memorandum of Understanding established in Islamabad in June, which had paused full-scale hostilities. During the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in late August, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian indicated readiness to return to the accord if the US did the same. Yet, prospects seem dim as the memorandum’s first provision demands an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon—a condition Tehran deems unlikely before Israel’s parliamentary elections on October 27.
Reports suggest that senior Trump advisers have urged limiting military escalation to avoid political fallout for Republicans at the midterms, while the White House considers expanding operations post-election. Ghaedi highlighted that Iran would likely be even more cautious if Democrats were to regain Congress and attempt to constrain Trump’s war conduct, seeking to prevent a unifying “rally-around-the-flag” effect.
Economic pressure remains a key US strategy, but Ahmad Alavi, an Iranian economics professor in Sweden, warns that sanctions alone may not yield concessions. He cautioned that if Tehran perceives the goal as regime change rather than behavioral modification, it might view yielding as an existential threat and respond with increased military action.
Meanwhile, Gulf states are pursuing diplomatic avenues to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign ministers from Oman and other Gulf nations plan to meet with their Iranian counterpart in Salalah next week, although any agreement would likely require US approval given the ongoing naval blockade.
Publicly, Iranian officials maintain a defiant stance. Deputy Speaker of Parliament Ali Nikzad stated on September 9 that the war would continue until “final victory,” while IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi demanded a complete cessation of US hostilities. The IRGC also released footage on September 10 allegedly showing the capture of a US Anduril Dive-LD unmanned underwater vehicle during a covert mine-clearing mission in the strait.
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