Vote Count Begins in High-Stakes Holborn and St Pancras By-election

Vote counting has commenced in the Holborn and St Pancras constituency in north London, a pivotal by-election triggered by the departure of former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. Starmer announced his resignation as MP in September following his ousting from Downing Street by Andy Burnham.

Camden Council has indicated that the final result is likely to be declared between 2:30 am and 4:00 am UK time. The seat, traditionally a Labour stronghold, saw Starmer win with a majority of 11,500 votes in the 2024 general election, despite significant challenges from Green candidates and a left-wing independent.

The contest features a field of 15 candidates, with Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali facing off against Green Party leader Zack Polanski. Other contenders include Ewan Cameron for the Conservatives, Peter Newman for Reform UK, and Patrick Thomas Stillman for the Liberal Democrats, alongside representatives from smaller parties such as Restore Britain, Workers Party, Rejoin EU, Climate Party, UK Voice, Ukip, the Monster Raving Loony Party, Communist League, Christian Peoples Alliance, and an independent candidate.

Green Party leader Zack Polanski enters the count following a tumultuous week. At the party conference last weekend, members voted to adopt a contentious policy equating Zionism with racism and calling for a single Palestinian state to replace Israel. The motion drew sharp condemnation from mainstream political parties, British Jewish organizations, and the State of Israel. Furthermore, four of the party’s five MPs publicly rejected the policy, and the head of the Jewish Greens stated she may leave the organization.

Polanski missed the vote in Brighton to focus on campaigning in Holborn and St Pancras. The internal division and international criticism have coincided with a decline in Green Party polling numbers. While recent surveys showed the Greens briefly leading Labour at 21% support following their Gorton and Denton by-election victory, the most current data places Polanski’s party at 11%, trailing Labour by 16 points.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who succeeded Starmer in July, has recently energized the Labour base by outlining a more ambitious and left-leaning policy agenda at the party conference. With the political landscape shifting since February’s Gorton and Denton result, where the Greens overturned a larger Labour majority, observers are watching closely to see if Polanski’s energetic door-knocking campaign can overcome the current polling deficit.