Saxony-Anhalt Election Poses Major Test for German Federal Government

On Sunday, 1.6 million eligible voters in Saxony-Anhalt will head to the polls to elect a new state parliament. Although this eastern German region, located between the Elbe River and the Harz Mountains, is less populous than six other federal states, the outcome carries significant weight for the national government. The vote presents a serious challenge for the ruling coalition comprising the conservative CDU/CSU and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD).

The election has intensified political turmoil in Berlin, with rumors suggesting that Chancellor Friedrich Merz could be forced to resign by his own party if results are unfavorable. This anxiety stems from poll numbers showing the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party leading in Saxony-Anhalt, well ahead of the centrist parties currently governing at the federal level. An absolute majority for the AfD remains a possibility, which would have profound consequences for the stability of the government in Berlin.

Political scientist Carsten Koschmieder from the Free University of Berlin dismisses the notion that Merz would step down, noting the chancellor’s determination and the lack of a clear successor within the CDU and CSU. However, Koschmieder warns that an AfD majority could plunge the federal coalition into crisis and intensify debates over how to handle a party with extremist elements. Before becoming chancellor in May 2025, Merz pledged to halve the AfD’s support through stricter migration policies, a goal he has not achieved. Consequently, his CDU has lost ground, drawing criticism from within his ranks, while maintaining a categorical refusal to cooperate with the AfD.

Should the CDU fall short of a majority in Saxony-Anhalt, it might attempt to form a minority government with the SPD and the Greens. Such a coalition would likely lack a parliamentary majority and require tolerance from the socialist Left Party—a prospect Merz has explicitly rejected, stating that cooperation with both the AfD and the Left Party is impossible due to fundamental differences.

Koschmieder highlights a split within the CDU, where some eastern German politicians are open to working with the AfD but refuse to engage with the Left, while others fear that partnering with right-wing populists would undermine democratic values and Germany’s Western alignment. Despite these internal tensions, Merz has publicly denied that the state election threatens the federal government’s stability, attributing dissent to outside agitators.

Beyond political maneuvering, security experts have raised alarms about the potential risks of an AfD-led state government. Georg Maier, the SPD interior minister of neighboring Thuringia, described the prospect of an AfD politician overseeing Saxony-Anhalt’s interior ministry as a severe security risk for Germany, particularly regarding access to sensitive counterintelligence data.

Meanwhile, the SPD is looking toward the September 20 state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where Premier Manuela Schwesig is favored for re-election. Although the AfD leads in polls there with around 35%, the SPD has seen a resurgence, potentially reaching 30% and opening avenues for coalition talks with the Left or CDU.