Germany and Russia have reached a historic nadir in bilateral relations, with diplomatic, cultural, and economic ties effectively severed following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite the complete breakdown in relations, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is mounting pressure on the government to resume energy cooperation and normalize ties with the Kremlin.
The once-thriving partnership that defined much of the early 21st century was built on cheap Russian energy imports that fueled German industrial exports. This era began under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and continued under Angela Merkel, centered around a pragmatic relationship with President Vladimir Putin. Even after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, commercial flows persisted, culminating in the signing of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline agreement to bypass Ukraine. Western allies had warned that such infrastructure would grant Moscow significant geopolitical leverage.
Those warnings were vindicated on February 24, 2022, when Russian forces launched a ground invasion of Ukraine. Mario Baumann, a Russia expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, noted that German officials had erroneously projected their own rationality onto the Kremlin, underestimating the regime’s imperialist ambitions.
In response to the invasion, Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared a Zeitenwende, or epochal shift, in German foreign and security policy. The government accelerated military expansion, with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stating the following year that Germany must become capable of waging war. Berlin also terminated its reliance on Russian gas and suspended operations on Nord Stream 2, which was subsequently sabotaged in September 2022.
While the official government stance has hardened—particularly under current Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has labeled Putin a war criminal and argued that Russia must lose the war—the domestic political landscape is shifting. The AfD has capitalized on public fatigue regarding the cost of supporting Ukraine. In the September 6 regional election in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD secured a landslide victory. Sven Leunig, a political scientist at the University of Jena, observed that voter sentiment is driven less by opposition to aid for Kyiv and more by fear of being drawn deeper into the conflict.
Tensions recently escalated further following the discovery of a Russian armed drone near Ukrainian transport aircraft at Leipzig Airport in August 2026. The German government publicly attributed the incident to the Kremlin, a move Russia denied. In retaliation, Moscow closed German cultural institutions and consulates, while Berlin shut down Russian cultural centers and the consulate in Bonn, accusing them of espionage activities.
With 42% of Germans surveyed in the latest ARD Deutschlandtrend poll believing military aid to Ukraine has gone too far, political analysts warn that sustained public skepticism could force the government to reconsider its strategy. For now, however, the relationship remains frozen, with the AfD advocating for a return to oil and gas deals that characterize the pre-2022 era.
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