MAGDEBURG, Germany — The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is projected to secure a decisive victory in Sunday’s regional election in Saxony-Anhalt. However, it remains unclear whether the party can overcome the longstanding refusal of mainstream political forces to cooperate with it to form the country’s first far-right state government since World War II.
AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund declared that the party had “written history,” framing the result as a direct rebuke to Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the current national government. Siegmund stated that voters were signaling that the status quo was unsustainable, calling Merz a “very good campaigner for us” while asserting that his tenure in the chancellery was “one too many.”
The AfD entered the vote seeking an absolute majority in the state legislature, which would allow it to govern independently and bypass the so-called firewall established by other major parties. While exit polls from public broadcasters ARD and ZDF placed the AfD at approximately 44% of the vote—more than double its 2021 showing—it appears to be just short of the majority required for sole governance.
The result deals a significant blow to Chancellor Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has governed Saxony-Anhalt for the past 24 years. The CDU is projected to fall to around 18.5%, losing roughly half its previous support. Other parties, including the Greens, Social Democrats, and The Left, are expected to each secure about 9%, while the newly formed BSW party faces an uncertain path to clearing the 5% threshold needed for parliamentary seats.
AfD national co-leader Alice Weidel hailed the results as “sensational,” claiming a clear mandate to govern. Meanwhile, outgoing Governor Sven Schulze conceded defeat but did not outline a path forward. Franziska Hoppermann, general secretary of the CDU, reiterated her party’s firm stance against collaboration, labeling the AfD a right-wing extremist group advocating for the euro’s dissolution and closer ties with Russia.
If the AfD fails to secure a majority, forming a government will prove extremely difficult. Any coalition would likely require tacit support from The Left party, which the CDU refuses to partner with. A precedent was set two years ago in neighboring Thuringia, where the CDU governed with a minority administration despite the AfD’s strong showing.
Siegmund has outlined an aggressive policy agenda, including a major deportation initiative, allowing homeschooling, banning schools from displaying rainbow flags, and challenging Germany’s contributions to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Although Saxony-Anhalt is one of Germany’s smaller states with only four votes in the upper house of parliament, the election highlights deep discontent with the national government’s handling of the economy and immigration.
So the CDU lost half its votes while promising stability? Voters clearly want change, but at what price?
This is a terrifying milestone for German democracy. The firewall must hold, no matter the political cost.