Russian President Vladimir Putin has enjoyed a productive week, beginning with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, where he met with global leaders including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This was followed by visits from Donald Trump’s advisers, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who traveled to Moscow to discuss potential breakthroughs in the Ukraine conflict.
However, the most significant developments for the Kremlin have emerged from Europe. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party achieved a decisive victory in the Saxony-Anhalt regional elections, raising the possibility of a Russia-friendly administration governing a core European Union member state. For Putin, who served as a KGB officer in Dresden during the 1980s, this political shift carries particular symbolic weight.
The AfD is currently experiencing substantial momentum, driven by public discontent with Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The party’s platform emphasizes strict immigration controls, restrictions on LGBTQ+ rights, and a reversal of renewable energy transitions. Having already topped the polls in Thuringia’s 2024 provincial elections, the AfD leads national surveys by six to seven percentage points over the CDU.
If the CDU fails to recover, the populists could secure the largest faction in the next Bundestag. Such an outcome would challenge the “firewall” (Brandmauer), a political barrier established by mainstream parties to exclude the AfD, which includes members with neo-Nazi ties, from executive power. Saxony-Anhalt serves as a potential testing ground for a far-right coalition.
Russia may help facilitate such alliances. The AfD is actively seeking support from the left, particularly the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a faction that split from the former communist Die Linke party. Like the far right, Wagenknecht advocates for halting military aid to Ukraine, pursuing peace talks with Moscow, and removing EU sanctions. Their shared skepticism toward progressive social policies aligns closely with Putin’s criticisms of Western cultural trends.
A coalition between the AfD and BSW in Berlin would likely mirror the governance style of Viktor Orban’s Hungary. Given Germany’s central role in European economics and security, the implications are substantial. While Germany dominates current headlines, France remains a critical concern. President Emmanuel Macron’s tenure is nearing its end, and Marine Le Pen appears poised to win the 2027 presidential election, potentially defeating mainstream candidates.
A nationalist, Eurosceptic leader in the Elysee would complicate European efforts to develop a unified foreign policy, particularly regarding Russia. Although Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) supports some military assistance for Ukraine, it demands negotiations and criticizes EU strategies aimed at defeating Russia. Under Le Pen, EU enlargement to countries such as Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans would likely stall, a outcome that benefits Russia by default.
While it is tempting to attribute the rise of illiberal parties solely to Moscow’s interference, their popularity largely stems from their ability to address genuine economic hardships and cultural anxieties. Russian influence campaigns typically amplify existing social divisions and resentment to destabilize established orders from within. Ultimately, the responsibility for these political choices rests with voters in democracies across Germany, France, the United States, and Greece.
Political positions also tend to moderate after election victories. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, for instance, evolved into a strong supporter of Ukraine and Western unity after her party won in 2022. Similarly, the RN has shifted toward the center on issues such as EU integration and Russia policy under Le Pen and Jordan Bardella.
The AfD remains an exception, maintaining its extreme stance effectively, though it may eventually need to moderate its views to attract CDU voters outside eastern Germany and break down the Brandmauer. Saxony-Anhalt, the ancestral homeland of Catherine the Great’s family, represents another point of pressure for Moscow, alongside incidents such as the foiled drone attack at Leipzig airport.
While the populist wave across Europe may not immediately produce radical changes favorable to Russia, it is likely to generate sufficient disruption to hinder the EU’s gradual emergence as a major geopolitical actor.
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