Another stark report regarding artificial intelligence is circulating, titled simply “It’s over.” Released Thursday by Egan-Jones, an independent credit agency and proxy advisory firm, the analysis argues that AI capabilities have surpassed a critical threshold for quality and speed, making widespread economic disruption nearly certain.
“AI has advanced so far that the complete disruption of the economy is all but certain, and firms that sell expertise by the hour, senior talent included, are first in line,” the firm stated in its report. The agency forecasts compressed margins for professional services, reduced venture capital returns, and immediate downward pressure on home prices as jobs requiring screen time are upended.
Egan-Jones suggests that software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies face particular peril. Their traditional advantage—providing interfaces for user-computer interaction—is being replaced by direct conversations with AI platforms. While the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF has rebounded from early-year lows, and cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike has surged 127% this year, the structural threat to the SaaS model remains.
The report highlights that firms selling “intellectual capital by the hour,” including auditors, investment bankers, consultants, lawyers, and engineers, are vulnerable to price erosion from AI competitors. The firm noted that a small team utilizing AI can now match the output of a much larger traditional workforce, reducing the necessity for gradual hiring and diminishing the value of seniority.
Startups are also scaling with unprecedented speed and lower capital requirements. Egan-Jones pointed out that ChatGPT reached 1.2 billion users in just 3.8 years, compared to the 8.6 years it took Facebook to hit one billion. This rapid scalability means startups can achieve mass adoption while relying less on advertising, which in turn compresses returns for venture capital firms.
The housing market is expected to feel the pinch in the short term. With approximately 60% of owner-occupied U.S. homes carrying mortgages, many buyers are already financially stretched. Egan-Jones warned that the loss of screen-based jobs could trigger a drop in home prices, particularly since dual incomes are often required to sustain mortgages in an environment where housing costs have outpaced salary growth.
However, the agency believes the long-term case for urban land remains solid due to persistent demand and the human preference for proximity to others. “Our view is short-term downward pressure, driven by that thin cushion faced by some homes,” the report concluded.
This gloomy forecast follows a similar viral report from Citrini Research in February, which predicted similar white-collar job losses and was blamed by some for wiping $200 billion in market capitalization from software stocks at the time of its release.
Egan-Jones has recently faced scrutiny from the Securities and Exchange Commission regarding its credit-rating business. Two former employees are currently suing the company, alleging they were pressured to inflate ratings to attract clients. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that U.S. insurers hold approximately $40 billion in debt investments that Egan-Jones has privately graded. The firm maintains that the new AI report was not authored by its credit-ratings team, though it did not disclose the specific author.
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