The campaign for Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday has reached its climax with polling data revealing an almost dead heat between incumbent leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro. Recent surveys suggest the race is too close to call, pointing toward a second-round runoff on October 25.
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term in office, while Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, aims to sustain the populist movement initiated by his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. Both candidates concluded their campaign trails on Saturday in São Paulo, the country’s economic engine.
Addressing thousands of supporters during a final rally in São Paulo, Lula pledged to “defeat the far right.” He characterized the vote as a critical choice between “democracy and sovereignty” versus “barbarism and corruption.” Organizers estimated that approximately 150,000 people attended the event. Throughout his campaign, Lula has championed his Workers’ Party agenda, which emphasizes welfare initiatives, state-led development, and income redistribution.
Conversely, Flavio Bolsonaro led a motorcycle procession through the São Paulo interior cities of Santa Barbara d’Oeste and Americana. Running on platforms of strict law and order and tax reductions, he criticized the current administration’s handling of the cost of living, labeling Lula “incompetent.” Bolsonaro expressed confidence that his candidacy would secure victory in the first round and displayed a portrait of his father to cheering crowds who chanted “mito,” or “legend,” a term used by Jair Bolsonaro’s base.
The election carries significant weight due to the legal troubles of the elder Bolsonaro. The former president is currently serving a 27-year sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 electoral defeat. Flavio Bolsonaro has stated he would pardon his father if elected, describing him as his “compass” and primary reference point, despite claiming to be more moderate than his parent.
Lula’s campaign team has framed the Bolsonaro faction as a threat to national sovereignty, highlighting ties between the Bolsonaros and US President Donald Trump. This political dynamic intensified after Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports last year in response to the coup trial against Jair Bolsonaro, which the US president dismissed as a “witch hunt.” Trump has not formally endorsed Flavio but noted he is monitoring the situation closely.
Adding to the volatility of the race, Flavio Bolsonaro is facing investigation for alleged corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion related to the financing of a biopic about his father. He has denied any wrongdoing. The campaign has also been marred by digital disinformation, with both sides deploying AI-generated content and rapid-response videos on social media.
According to the latest survey by the research firm Quaest, cited by Reuters, Lula leads with 46% support against Bolsonaro’s 45% in the first round. If a runoff occurs, the projections shift slightly, showing Bolsonaro at 44% and Lula at 42%. The margin is razor-thin compared to the 2022 election, where Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro by just 1.8 percentage points.
Brazil’s 160 million registered voters will also select governors, senators, and other lawmakers on Sunday.
I am skeptical about the accuracy of these polls. Both sides are accusing each other of disinformation, so who can we actually trust?
Trump’s tariffs have really complicated things. It is strange how international politics influence Brazil’s internal elections this much.
The biopic corruption allegations are wild. Mixing art and political funding like that seems like a recipe for disaster.
A runoff seems almost certain given these numbers. I wonder if the undecided voters will break for Lula or Bolsonaro in the second round?