New Hampshire is holding critical primaries on Tuesday to determine the Democratic and Republican nominees for the U.S. Senate seat now vacant due to the retirement of Senator Jeanne Shaheen. The contest is viewed as a pivotal battleground that could influence which party maintains control of the Senate.
For Democrats to seize the majority, they must gain four seats while defending all current holdings, including this one in New Hampshire. Although the state has not elected a Republican senator since 2010 and voted for a Republican presidential candidate last in 2000, GOP Governor Chris Sununu has held the state’s highest office since 2017. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won the state by only three points in the 2024 election.
In the Democratic primary, Representative Chris Pappas is seeking the nomination for the open Senate seat. Pappas, who has represented New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District since 2019 and is the state’s first openly gay member of Congress, faces opposition from Karishma Manzur, a medical scientist and member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). Senator Shaheen has publicly endorsed Pappas.
The general election matchup highlights significant ideological divides. Pappas is considered a moderate, while Manzur campaigns on progressive platforms such as Medicare for All and campaign finance reform. Manzur is aiming for an upset similar to that of Florida State Representative Angie Nixon, a DSA member who won her state’s Senate primary in August, echoing earlier progressive victories in New York and Colorado congressional races.
On the Republican side, former Senator John Sununu is competing against former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. Sununu, who lost to Shaheen in 2008 and served in the House from 1997 to 2003, is the brother of Governor Chris Sununu and the son of former Governor John Sununu. He holds the endorsement of President Donald Trump and is favored to win the nomination.
Voters will also select nominees for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, an open seat after Pappas runs for Senate. The National Republican Congressional Committee identifies the district as a top target this year. Democrats have held the seat since 2017, though it was highly competitive prior, with party control changing five times since 2006.
Nine Democrats are vying for the nomination, with frontrunners Maura Sullivan and Stefany Shaheen engaged in a contentious race. Sullivan, a former Pentagon and Veterans Department official under the Obama administration, lost to Pappas in the 2018 Democratic primary. Stefany Shaheen is the daughter of the retiring senator. According to Federal Election Commission data, Sullivan has raised more than $1 million ahead of her opponent.
Five Republicans are competing for their party’s nomination. President Trump endorsed businessman Anthony DiLorenzo in July, praising his entrepreneurial success. DiLorenzo holds a fundraising edge over Novel Iron Works CEO Hollie Noveletsky, another early frontrunner, though recent polling indicates the two candidates are statistically tied.
In the governor’s race, Republican Kelly Ayotte, first elected in 2024, faces two primary challengers but is expected to secure the nomination easily. Democrat Cindie Warmington is running unopposed for her party’s nomination.
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Don’t sleep on the NH-1 race; five Republicans and nine Democrats makes for a crowded field.
Sununu seems locked up with Trump’s endorsement, but Brown has name recognition. Could be closer than expected.
Stefany Shaheen running for her mom’s old seat is an interesting dynamic, but fundraising numbers suggest Sullivan has the edge.
I’m curious if Manzur’s progressive platform can overcome the establishment support Pappas has from Shaheen.
Kamala Harris winning by three points here makes this Senate seat absolutely critical for Democrats.