The eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt is set to hold a pivotal election on Sunday, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party positioned to become the first far-right entity to assume state-level power since the end of World War II. Recent polling data indicates the AfD is commanding 40% support, significantly outpacing the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which sits at 23%.
While the AfD has maintained a comfortable lead in surveys for several months, securing an absolute majority hinges on smaller political parties failing to surpass the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation. Should the AfD fall short, a CDU-led administration under incumbent State Premier Sven Schulze remains the most probable outcome, potentially followed by weeks of coalition negotiations depending on which parties clear the electoral bar.
AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund, a former CDU member, has confidently predicted an absolute majority that he believes will pave the way for the anti-establishment party to capture national power in the 2029 federal elections. Siegmund, who was recently labeled “Germany’s most dangerous man” by Der Spiegel magazine, told the tabloid Bild that the party would govern alone if mainstream parties continue to enforce a “firewall” policy of non-cooperation.
This strategy echoes the AfD’s existing approach at the local level, where it has already bypassed the non-cooperation agreements of other parties. For the AfD, the Saxony-Anhalt election serves as a critical stepping stone toward its broader ambition of dominating national politics.
Opposition leader Friedrich Merz, the deeply unpopular German Chancellor and head of the CDU, has urged fellow politicians to engage more effectively with the AfD rather than ignoring its rise. Speaking at a campaign rally in Lower Saxony ahead of the vote, Merz stressed the need to address the issues driving voter discontent and to reconsider political rhetoric.
The call for engagement comes amid controversy surrounding statements made by Martin Reichardt, the AfD’s state leader in Saxony-Anhalt. Reichardt previously described Germany to the party’s youth organization as “a lazy, anti-social bum reeking of dope,” drawing sharp criticism. In response to the rising tide of far-right sentiment, thousands of demonstrators gathered in Magdeburg for a “festival of democracy” on Saturday, supporting an open and solidarity-based society.
Organizers estimated that between 15,000 and 20,000 people attended the pre-election rally. Initial election results are expected to be released at approximately 16:00 GMT (6:00 pm local time) on Sunday.
Fascinating how they’re pushing for absolute majorities while mainstream parties remain divided on engagement strategies.
I didn’t realize the AfD was polling this high at 40 percent. Is the firewall really holding elsewhere?
This is deeply alarming. A far-right state government in Germany again? The implications are terrifying.