Fighting between Yemen’s internationally recognized government and the Iran-backed Houthi militia has intensified significantly this week, with the rebels seizing control of critical coastal territory and exchanging heavy missile and drone strikes with Saudi Arabia. According to sources close to the Yemeni government, the Houthis took over the port city of Mokha on Thursday, followed by the town of Dhubab and the island of Perim by Friday.
The capture of these three locations is strategically significant due to their proximity to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. With Iran currently blockading the nearby Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb has become a vital alternative corridor for Saudi oil exports. Analysts note that Houthi control over this waterway provides Tehran with additional leverage in its broader confrontation with the United States.
The ground offensive has reignited cross-border hostilities. The Houthis launched dozens of ballistic missiles and drones at four Saudi cities this week, while Riyadh responded with aerial bombardments across four Yemeni provinces. The National Resistance Forces, aligned with the government, announced they are reorganizing and consolidating defenses in Mokha alongside other anti-Houthi factions.
Experts warn that the region has entered a phase of full-scale warfare. “This is actually a full-scale war,” Farea Al-Muslimi, a Yemen researcher at Chatham House, told DW. “It hasn’t been given that name yet but we are marching there full time.”
The current escalation, which began in July, marks a stark departure from the relative calm that followed a UN-brokered truce in 2022. Since the Saudi-led coalition intervened in 2015 to support Yemen’s government against the Houthi insurgency, the balance of power has shifted. Elham Manea of the University of Zurich noted that the Houthi movement is now “militarily and institutionally much stronger,” while the opposing camp remains fragmented.
Saudi Arabia’s strategy appears to have evolved from direct military intervention to providing enhanced military, technical, and logistical support to government-aligned forces. Manea suggested that Riyadh is likely seeking to restore deterrence and improve its negotiating position rather than pursue total military defeat of the Houthis. “The Saudis would like to avoid war at any cost,” Al-Muslimi added.
Under the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, signed recently by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, member states have not yet triggered mutual defense clauses. Pakistani officials stated that no immediate military response is being discussed, though they reserved the right to act in the future. Alice Gower of Azure Strategy noted that while Pakistan is unlikely to join the conflict directly, the escalation will test its ability to remain neutral while preserving its role as a mediator with Iran.
The humanitarian crisis is deepening rapidly. The UN Development Programme estimates that 377,000 people died in Yemen between 2014 and late 2021, with roughly 154,000 deaths directly caused by combat. The World Health Organization reports that nearly 200 people have been killed in the current fighting, while the International Organization for Migration estimates that approximately 18,500 civilians have been displaced.
Abdusattor Esoev, chief of mission for the IOM in Yemen, described families arriving with no shelter or food, many having been displaced multiple times. Niku Jafarnia of Human Rights Watch warned that renewed violence threatens to repeat the devastating civilian casualties seen between 2014 and 2022, noting that nearly two-thirds of Yemen’s population already requires aid.
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