U.S. crude oil prices have climbed back above the $100-a-barrel threshold, a level last seen in May, as fears of a prolonged military confrontation between the United States and Iran cast a long shadow over global energy markets. The escalation comes as the conflict enters its seventh month with no diplomatic resolution in sight.
On Thursday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 4.4% to reach $100.27 per barrel by 8:57 a.m. ET, while the international benchmark, Brent crude, advanced 4% to $105.24 a barrel. Analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that continued attacks on shipping infrastructure could push prices beyond $120 per barrel.
The market turmoil coincides with political turbulence in Washington. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, President Donald Trump’s senior advisers have privately raised concerns that the Iran war could extend through the remainder of his term, potentially past Inauguration Day in January 2029. This assessment directly contradicts Trump’s recent public assertions that the conflict would conclude immediately after the midterm elections.
Trump further claimed on Wednesday that both oil and gasoline prices would drop once the midterms concluded. However, retail fuel costs are trending in the opposite direction. Gasoline prices set a Labor Day record on Monday, and diesel is projected to cross the $6-per-gallon milestone for the first time in history in the coming days.
“Trump said Iran was desperate to try and affect the election, so that we can get a nice weak group of people in there, and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon,” the President stated regarding Tehran’s alleged motives.
Hostilities recently intensified after a period of relative calm throughout August. Iran has launched attacks against American warships over the past several days, prompting the U.S. military to destroy eight Iranian tankers in retaliation since Saturday.
Industry experts note that the physical oil market may tighten further due to declining transit volumes and potential threats to broader energy infrastructure. David Morrison, a senior market analyst at Trade Nation, observed that WTI has completely erased the selloff witnessed between early June and July, while Brent prices now sit well above early June levels.
Andrei Constantin, commercial director at TFP Software FZCO, cautioned that any further escalation or direct attacks on energy assets could extend the upward trajectory of oil prices significantly.
Wild seeing WTI erase its entire summer selloff in days. Markets move fast when fear hits.
His promises about post-midterm price drops clearly don’t match reality. Voters deserve better answers.
Goldman’s $120 prediction terrifies me. If Strait of Hormuz gets blocked, we are in deep trouble.
Gas at $6 a gallon is brutal for working families. Hope this isn’t the new normal.