Turkey Seeks Regional Primacy as U.S. Recedes from Middle East

As the United States signals a reduced military presence in the Middle East, Turkey is positioning itself to become the region’s central security architect. This strategic shift was highlighted on Aug. 7, when leaders from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement at a palace overlooking Islam’s holiest site.

The pact, described by some observers as the foundation of a “Sunni Security Triad,” merges Saudi Arabia’s financial resources, Turkey’s substantial conventional military forces—ranking second in NATO—and Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. The agreement incorporates mutual defense clauses similar to NATO’s Article 5, pledging that an attack on one signatory is considered an attack on all, alongside commitments to share intelligence and defense technology.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan identified Ankara as the primary driver behind three years of negotiations. Analysts suggest the deal reflects Turkey’s broader strategy to establish itself as a pivotal regional power following years of instability that have upended traditional geopolitical dynamics.

Ankara’s rising influence is bolstered by a diversified defense industry that has reduced reliance on Western arms, although Turkey continues to seek F-35 jets from Washington. The country has expanded its military reach through bases in Somalia, Qatar, and Libya, while playing an increasingly decisive role in post-war Syria. Additionally, Turkey has utilized cultural exports, such as popular television dramas, and humanitarian projects like school construction to extend its soft power across the region.

This assertive foreign policy emerges against a backdrop of significant regional shocks, including the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and a subsequent seven-month stalemate in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. With Iran’s proxy networks in Syria and Lebanon reportedly weakened, discussions in Washington about scaling back its security footprint have gained traction, raising questions among regional allies about the reliability of the American security umbrella.

However, Turkey’s ambitions face substantial hurdles. Persistent economic mismanagement has resulted in high inflation, a depreciating currency, and soaring energy costs. Asli Aydintasbas, director of The Turkey Project at the Brookings Institution, noted that while Turkey is not militarily weak, its regional aspirations currently exceed its economic capacity.

“Ankara understands that it’s been unable to translate its growing influence into a Turkish-led order beyond its immediate periphery,” Aydintasbas said. She added that there is a sense within the ruling elite, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, of a “manifest destiny” for Turkey to become the region’s heavyweight, though foreign policy remains tempered by economic realities.

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria in 2024 has served as a key testing ground for Turkish influence. Ankara secured multi-billion-dollar reconstruction contracts and became the primary partner in rebuilding the Syrian army, directly challenging Israel’s vision of a fragmented neighborhood where no single power can challenge its dominance.

Tensions between the two neighbors have escalated recently. In early August, Israel conducted an airstrike on a former airbase in northern Syria to preempt what it believed was an impending Turkish deployment. Both Turkey and Syria denied any troop movements, and U.S. officials condemned the strike as an unnecessary escalation.

Diplomatic relations have deteriorated sharply. At the recent United Nations General Assembly, Erdogan accused Israel of harboring a “genocidal mindset,” causing the Israeli delegation to walk out. In response, Israeli officials have employed heated rhetoric, with former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett labeling Turkey “the new Iran” and Defense Minister Israel Katz warning Erdogan not to provoke conflict.

Eldad Ben Aharon, a senior researcher at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, observed that Israel and Turkey increasingly view their regional rivalry through a zero-sum lens, raising the possibility of future violent confrontation. He noted that the historical levers Israel once held over Turkey have diminished, with Erdogan now relying on direct personal ties with President Trump to access the White House.

Despite the hostility, some analysts see a potential pathway to de-escalation. Aydintasbas argued that the United States must develop a diplomatic roadmap to repair Turkish-Israeli relations, which would ultimately allow Washington to further reduce its regional footprint. However, the volatile nature of Trump’s decision-making style poses challenges for long-term strategic planning. As Ben Aharon concluded, the trajectory of regional stability will largely depend on the specific leadership choices made in both Ankara and Jerusalem in the coming years.