Mark Esper, who served as Secretary of Defense under Donald Trump’s first term, stated on Thursday that the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran shows no signs of concluding soon, potentially allowing China to further consolidate its global power. Speaking at the GZERO Summit in London, organized by Eurasia Group and LSEG, Esper predicted the war could extend well into 2027, possibly resulting in the issue being passed to the next presidential administration.
Esper highlighted the strategic danger posed by Washington’s fixation on the Middle East. “China is our greatest adversary,” he said, warning that while US attention remains diverted, Beijing continues to build up its military and economic capabilities.
The current impasse in the eight-month-long war has seen Trump express reluctance to negotiate with Tehran. Reports indicate that US officials are considering a resumption of large-scale military operations in the coming weeks. Esper noted that while former President Barack Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was insufficient, reaching a superior deal would be extremely difficult for Trump, requiring him to restore the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz.
Esper, who held office from July 2019 to November 2020, has long supported a strategy of “economic strangulation” against Iran. He described this approach as the “least worst option” at present, though he acknowledged that such policies demand a level of discipline and patience often lacking in US politics. Over the summer, the Trump administration intensified this strategy with what it termed “Economic D-Day,” announcing harsher sanctions and restrictions.
Despite administration claims of success, Esper cautioned that without a swift resolution, the prolonged engagement risks ceding long-term geopolitical advantages to China.
I worry this ‘strangulation’ strategy just pushes Iran closer to Beijing. Are we really trading one enemy for an alliance with China?
Esper is right. Every month spent in the Middle East is a month China spends building its influence. We need to pivot before it is too late.