Trump Faces Xi as Alliance Strains Complicate U.S. Pressure on China

As President Donald Trump prepares for a two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the United States faces a diplomatic landscape significantly altered by strained relationships with traditional allies and an increasingly resilient China. Trump has long pursued a strategy of economic coercion, utilizing tariffs and technology restrictions to curb Beijing’s influence. However, the upcoming talks reveal a complex challenge: China has successfully deepened its global trade connections while cultivating its own leverage points, leaving fewer nations willing to unify behind U.S. demands.

The meeting, scheduled to begin Wednesday, marks a juxtaposition of sharp policy confrontations with the ceremonial diplomacy traditionally shown between the world’s two largest economies. Despite years of U.S. efforts to isolate Beijing, China’s global trade surplus is projected to exceed $1 trillion for a second consecutive year, reaching a record $1.2 trillion in 2025. This economic buoyancy persists even as exports to the United States have declined.

Analysts note that the shift is not solely due to Chinese strategy but also reflects the impact of Trump’s transactional approach. Since returning to office, disputes over defense spending, tariffs on neighbors like Canada, and personal friction with foreign leaders have cooled relations with key partners. Consequently, countries that once amplified U.S. power are now seeking greater autonomy between the two superpowers.

“China is presenting itself to the world as the stable counterweight to an erratic and violent United States,” said Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. “America retains unmatched power on the world stage, but leverage requires a united front and there are a shrinking number of countries willing to follow America’s lead right now.”

Historically, the U.S. advantage lay in its extensive alliance network, which helped enforce sanctions and technology bans. While China’s defense alliances remain significantly weaker—scoring 18.9 compared to the U.S.’s 81.4 on the Lowy Institute’s 2025 index—experts argue Beijing does not need allies to switch sides. It only needs them to hesitate before supporting Washington. Hass noted that declining public confidence in the U.S. raises the political cost for foreign leaders to align with America.

Polling data underscores this erosion of trust. In Canada, the percentage of citizens viewing the U.S. as a reliable partner dropped from 83% in 2022 to 35% in 2026. Similarly, in Germany, the share of people believing Washington considers other nations’ interests fell from 60% in 2023 to 23%. This discontent has prompted moves such as Canada seeking “associate member” status in the European Union to deepen defense ties with Europe and reduce reliance on the U.S.

China has exploited these divisions by encouraging a less binary global order. India, a strategic competitor to China with active border disputes, recently saw Xi visit for the first time in seven years during the BRICS summit. Bilateral trade hit a record $155.6 billion in 2025, and leaders agreed to strengthen business links. Tanvi Madan of Brookings observed that uncertainty regarding Trump’s Beijing policy has motivated India to maintain steadier relations with China.

Economically, the leverage dynamic has shifted notably in the realm of critical minerals. While the U.S. maintains control over advanced semiconductor technology, China responded to American pressures by placing seven rare-earth elements under export controls last year. Controlling approximately 70% of global mining and 87% of refining, Beijing has demonstrated the ability to disrupt supply chains, forcing companies like Ford to halt production due to magnet shortages.

“One of China’s primary objectives ahead of these meetings is to box the U.S. in diplomatically, to limit the Trump administration’s range of action,” said Melanie Hart of the Atlantic Council. “That vulnerability now hangs over Thursday’s summit.”

The current trade truce is set to expire on November 10, with rare earths remaining a key topic in recent consultations between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Despite China’s counter-leverage, Trump retains significant cards, including restrictions on advanced chip access and the ability to regulate sales of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips, which are currently permitted for a limited number of Chinese firms. These competing pressures define the high-stakes negotiations as both leaders seek to advance their respective economic and strategic interests.