The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, hitherto quiet, is about to see its first major development. According to the latest forecast from the US National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to intensify into a hurricane before making landfall along the Gulf Coast between Mississippi and Florida by the weekend.
Isaias is currently moving through the Gulf of Mexico with sustained winds of 65 mph, just below the threshold for hurricane status. As the storm tracks over a region of unusually warm water, forecasters anticipate it could strengthen to a Category 2 system with winds reaching 110 mph while heading northeast. However, strong wind shear from the ongoing El Niño event is expected to weaken the storm shortly before it makes landfall.
Authorities have issued hurricane watches for the coastlines of Mississippi and Alabama, as well as portions of the Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm watches extend further into Louisiana. Residents in these areas are bracing for rainfall totals of up to 7 inches, with isolated spots in the Panhandle potentially receiving 10 inches. Storm surges of up to 7 feet are also possible, alongside a risk of tornadoes.
Isaias may also make history by becoming the latest first hurricane of an Atlantic season on record. The previous record was set in 1905, when the season’s first hurricane formed on October 8. A Wednesday update will determine if Isaias can tie this milestone.
The relative calm of this season contrasts sharply with earlier predictions of a below-average year. The suppression of cyclone activity is largely attributed to a powerful El Niño phenomenon, described by meteorologists using informal superlatives such as “super,” “Godzilla,” and “supersized.” This weather pattern has altered high-altitude winds across the Atlantic basin, effectively disrupting storm development.
Additionally, Saharan dust has contributed to the dry atmospheric conditions that have stifled hurricane formation in key development regions. Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific have recorded record highs this summer and early fall, reinforcing the intensity of the El Niño and its impact on global weather patterns.
Calling it a Godzilla El Niño is pretty telling. If this is what a super El Niño does, I dread to think about next year.
The 7-foot storm surge potential is terrifying. Hope everyone in the watch zones has their evacuation plan ready to go.
Tying a record from 1905 would be historic! Have we actually had zero hurricanes since June? That feels weirdly quiet.
El Niño has been brutal this season. Glad Isaias is weakening before landfall, but seven inches of rain is still dangerous.