The Unexpected Election of Pope Leo: How an American Cardinal Became the First in History

In the days following the death of Pope Francis on April 26, 2025, Cardinal Robert Prevost’s phone was inundated with messages of condolence and unexpected suggestions from friends around the world. Father Ramiro Castillo Castro, a former student, urged collective prayer, while John Snider, a Lutheran pastor and longtime friend, wished Prevost well as he prepared for the intense responsibilities of the upcoming conclave.

Among the messages was a particularly notable note from John Barry, a high school friend. Barry reminded Prevost of a theory their mutual friend Jeanette had proposed: that Prevost himself could become the next pope. Barry praised Prevost’s compassion and holiness, humorously asking if they could continue emailing if he were elected. Prevost responded with characteristic humility, dismissing the idea that his address would change and referencing an inside joke about Barry calling him “Bob” rather than by his proper title.

Despite these sentiments from his inner circle, Prevost was not initially considered a top contender, or “papabile,” by the broader Vatican community. The primary obstacle was his nationality. No American had ever been elected pope, and prevailing wisdom suggested the position was unsuitable for a citizen of a nation perceived as wielding excessive political and economic influence. Complicating matters, President Donald Trump had recently returned to power and promoted an aggressive “America First” agenda. Upon his return, Trump posted an AI-generated image of himself as pope on social media, an act that offended many cardinals and Catholics globally.

Cardinal Blase Cupich, the Archbishop of Chicago, publicly expressed skepticism about the prospect, telling the Chicago Sun-Times that electing a pope from the United States would be a “stretch” given the country’s global power dynamics. Prevost, however, took the comments in stride, telling Father John Merkelis that he was “sleeping well at night” because the archbishop had ruled out an American candidate. When Merkelis relayed this to Sister Thérèse DelGenio, a former mentor, she simply replied, “Oops… He forgot about the Holy Spirit.”

As cardinals from around the world converged on Rome, New York Archbishop Timothy Dolan emerged as a high-profile figure in the U.S. delegation. Dolan, an ally of the Trump administration and a veteran of the 2013 conclave, was confident and media-savvy, joking that he had better chances of batting cleanup for the Yankees than becoming pope. However, Dolan admitted he had never met Prevost and initially had no recollection of him as a potential candidate. As other cardinals began asking Dolan about Prevost’s temperament and interests, Dolan realized he needed to change that quickly.

Dolan approached the reserved Prevost at a gathering, introducing himself and noting that he had heard good things but had never formally met him. Prevost, who was not engaging in the typical networking of the conclave, was found to be shy rather than aloof.

The conclave proceedings, which began shortly after Francis’s death, resembled the dramatized version seen in the 2024 film “Conclave.” Cardinals held daily General Congregation meetings in an auditorium near St. Peter’s Square, discussing the future direction of the church. Cardinal Joseph Tobin of New Jersey described the sessions as occasionally disorganized, comparing them to arguments in an Italian barbershop, but noted they consistently returned to core questions about what the church and the world needed.

Outside the Vatican, Rome buzzed with activity from thousands of journalists and pilgrims. The release of the film “Conclave,” based on Robert Harris’s novel, had heightened public interest in the secrecy and strategy of the election. While many real-life cardinals claimed not to have seen the movie, Prevost had watched it and humorously compared the characters to his real-life colleagues. He pointed out, however, that the book was written in 2016, before he was made a cardinal, and insisted he did not fit the mold of a fictional papal contender.

As the deliberations continued, Prevost’s profile rose among the electors. He was recognized as a close ally of Pope Francis, committed to synodality, immigration rights, and environmental stewardship. His extensive missionary work in Peru also led some to describe him as “the least-American American.” For cardinals like Dolan who desired a stylistic shift from the Francis era, Prevost offered a appealing alternative: calm, reliable, and measured, without the unpredictability associated with previous pontificates.