A new study published by the University of Illinois Chicago quantifies the significant economic impact of immigration enforcement actions on the city, estimating that widespread fear following 2025 ICE raids cost Chicago more than $1.26 billion in lost business revenue.
Researchers utilized anonymous cellphone GPS data to monitor movement patterns between immigrant and non-immigrant neighborhoods throughout Cook County. The data indicates that routine travel between these areas ceased almost immediately after President Donald Trump took office on January 20, 2025, coinciding with rampant rumors and subsequent sweeps suggesting Chicago would be a primary target for Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations.
Professor Matt Wilson, a co-author of the report, emphasized that the economic consequences extended well beyond immigrant communities. The study estimates that reduced consumer mobility resulted in a 9% drop in retail activity and a 10% decline in restaurant visits. These downturns persisted for approximately a year, with little sign of recovery, ultimately costing the state of Illinois an estimated $107 million in lost tax revenue.
“It’s not that it recovered after a year. People’s behavior systematically changed after January 20, 2025,” Wilson told NPR. “He says the city has yet to recover.”
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