Yemen’s internationally recognized government has launched air strikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels attempting to seize control of critical territories in the north and west. The intensity of the fighting has recently escalated around Marib, the last major government stronghold in northern Yemen, and in the western governorate of Taiz, marking a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict.
Marib is widely viewed by analysts as the war’s decisive battleground. It houses Yemen’s largest oil and gas fields, providing a vital source of revenue, and serves as the final territorial barrier for government forces in the north. According to Saddam al-Huraibi, a Yemeni political commentator, dominating these energy resources has been a Houthi objective for over a decade. “Without facing a crushing defeat in Marib, they would keep fighting to achieve that goal,” he said.
Adam Baron, a fellow at the Future Security Program of the New America think tank, described a potential Houthi capture of Marib as a “watershed moment” for Yemen’s internal dynamics. He noted that while the battle would be fiercely contested, the loss would constitute an “absolute crushing defeat” for government forces, significantly weakening their negotiating leverage in any future mediation efforts.
Beyond its economic value, Marib holds strategic geographic importance as the primary route connecting northern Yemen to the southern governorates of Shabwa and al-Mahra. Additionally, the city has become a refuge for displaced populations; the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that 58 percent of Yemen’s 2.8 million internally displaced people, recorded in 2023, reside in Marib. More than 85,000 individuals have been forced to flee their homes since the beginning of September, with over 2,000 crossing into Djibouti.
In western Yemen, heated combat is also underway in Taiz. Government forces, supported by Saudi Arabia, have reportedly launched a counteroffensive after losing ground in the region last week. A video released by the Yemeni army on Monday purportedly shows Houthi positions and vehicles being bombed in the area. Taiz serves as a geographical bridge between the Houthi-held north and the government-controlled south, making it essential for the movement of weapons and supplies toward the port city of Aden.
The capture of Taiz would carry significant symbolic weight, as the city has been a center of resistance since the Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa, in 2014. Furthermore, Houthi advances in the region have brought them closer to the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a critical maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis have recently seized control of most of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, including Mayyun Island within the strait.
Fuad Mussed, a Yemeni analyst, stated that these moves align with Tehran’s long-standing strategy to exert influence over key waterways like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, using them as leverage against regional and international powers. This development poses a direct concern for Saudi Arabia, which relies on the Red Sea route to export oil while bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Yemeni writer Nabil Hetari emphasized that all parties involved view Marib as a potential decider in how the war ultimately ends.
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