Southeast Asia Plunged Into Severe Haze Crisis as Super El Niño Intensifies Wildfires

Indonesia is grappling with its most severe wildfire crisis in eleven years, releasing thick smog that has enveloped more than 12 million residents and drifted into neighboring nations. The fires, which have raged for weeks across seven provinces on the islands of Sumatra and Borneo, are being fueled by extreme dryness and drought conditions linked to a powerful “Super El Niño” weather pattern.

According to government data, approximately 202,000 hectares of land were consumed by fire between January and July. The situation escalated dramatically in August, with environmental group YKAN reporting that an additional 600,000 hectares burned in that single month. These seasonal blazes are typically set by farmers and corporations to clear vegetation, despite legal prohibitions against the practice.

Smoke laden with soot and fine particulate matter has reduced visibility across much of Southeast Asia. Suwadi, a resident of Kalimantan, described the experience to the Guardian as feeling “like smoking a cigarette.” Indonesian authorities have warned that the fires may persist through October or early November due to a delayed rainy season. In response, President Prabowo Subianto has called for stricter penalties and ordered local governments to eliminate exemptions that permitted smallholders to burn land.

Enforcement actions are underway: as of September 4, police were investigating 112 individuals suspected of starting the fires, and five companies had their operating licenses suspended. To combat the blaze, Indonesia has deployed over 50 aircraft for water bombing and cloud seeding, while Japan contributed three CH-47 Chinook helicopters. Civil society groups and government agencies have also distributed oxygen cylinders under the “Rumah Oksigen” campaign to protect vulnerable residents.

The health implications of the haze are severe. The smoke contains PM2.5 particles, which are roughly 30 times smaller than a human hair and can penetrate deep into the lungs and bloodstream. Short-term exposure causes eye irritation, throat inflammation, coughing, and fatigue, while long-term exposure is linked to cardiovascular disease, lung cancer, and premature death. Children, the elderly, pregnant individuals, and those with pre-existing heart or lung conditions are at highest risk.

Data from Indonesia’s Health Ministry reveals a sharp spike in respiratory infections, with 113,336 cases recorded across seven provinces by September 9—double the number from the previous week. Nearly a quarter of these patients were children aged five and under. In Central Kalimantan, the Indonesian Standard Pollution Index (ISPU) reached 1,919 on September 2, a level indicating an immediate threat to human health.

Transboundary haze has plagued the region for decades, with seasonal winds carrying smoke from Indonesian peatlands and forests to Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, and occasionally the Philippines and Thailand. The crisis intensified during the 1997-98 El Niño event, which caused over $9 billion in losses, and again in 2015, when fires burned 2.6 million hectares and cost Indonesia at least $16 billion.

This year, the impact has been widespread. Singapore recorded unhealthy air quality across the entire island for the first time since 2019, while Malaysia declared a state of emergency in parts of Sarawak and closed 647 schools, affecting nearly 200,000 students. Brunei and the Philippines have also reported significant air pollution issues, leading to school closures in affected areas.

Beyond immediate health concerns, experts warn that the Super El Niño could trigger broader economic and political instability. A recent report by risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft highlights that extreme weather, combined with energy shocks from the conflict involving the U.S. and Israel in Iran, threatens food security across South and Southeast Asia. Indonesia’s palm oil production and rice yields in India and sugar harvests in Thailand are at risk.

The report cautioned that countries already facing humanitarian challenges, such as Afghanistan and Myanmar, could see crises deepen. It also noted that nations like India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Indonesia may face civil unrest due to inflation and food shortages, pointing to recent demonstrations in Indonesia over rising prices and corruption as evidence of growing public discontent.