Recent projections indicate that the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027 could range between 3.5% and 3.6%, according to new analyses based on government inflation figures. If realized, this increase would represent the largest boost to benefits in three years.
In 2026, approximately 75 million recipients of Social Security and Supplemental Security Income received a 2.8% benefit increase, as reported by the Social Security Administration.
Mary Johnson, an independent policy analyst specializing in Social Security and Medicare, stated that the latest consumer price index data released on Friday points toward a 3.5% COLA for next year. This figure is slightly higher than her August estimate of 3.4%. Johnson noted that volatility in oil prices remains a key variable, given the significant impact energy costs have had on inflation since the onset of the war.
Other major organizations have released comparable forecasts. The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy group, now projects a 3.5% increase, revised down from its previous estimate of 3.6%. This adjustment would translate to an additional $67.90 per month for the average beneficiary.
Conversely, AARP, the nonprofit organization representing Americans aged 50 and older, raised its forecast to 3.6% on Friday, up from 3.5% in August. The group estimates that this change would add $75 per month to the average retired worker’s benefit.
Over the past decade, COLA adjustments have fluctuated widely, ranging from a 0% increase in 2016 to a record-breaking 8.7% in 2023, driven by elevated inflation rates. According to the Social Security Administration, the average COLA over the last 10 years has been approximately 3.1%.
The official COLA determination for 2027 is scheduled to be announced in October. That calculation will incorporate one additional month of inflation data beyond what was available for current estimates.
Better than the last two years, I suppose. Small wins are still wins for those on fixed incomes.
Oil prices are the wild card here. If that spikes again, we could see something quite different.
Wait, this is about 2027? I thought we were talking about next year. Did I miss something?
Interesting that AARP and the Senior Citizens League have such different estimates. Who do you trust more?
Three and a half percent still feels like a loss in real terms given grocery prices. We are barely keeping up.