Canada’s Parti Québécois (PQ) is projected to secure enough seats in the Quebec provincial election to form a minority government, marking the separatist party’s return to power for the first time since 2014. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is poised to become the province’s new premier, bringing renewed focus to the question of Quebec’s independence and posing a fresh challenge to Prime Minister Mark Carney.
In his victory address, St-Pierre Plamondon reaffirmed his commitment to achieving sovereignty but promised to serve as “the premier of everyone in Quebec.” The PQ has pledged to hold a referendum on separating from the rest of Canada, a move that would require support from other parties given the projected minority status. The party won approximately 28% of the popular vote, falling short of the 64 seats needed for a majority in the provincial assembly.
The political landscape shifted dramatically as the previously governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) collapsed, failing to win any seats. Meanwhile, the Quebec Liberal Party, led by Charles Milliard, secured the second-most seats with 40. Despite their position, Milliard stated that his party would not collaborate on a potential independence referendum.
St-Pierre Plamondon has indicated that a referendum would likely take place after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office, citing the need for an “informed and serene debate” amid the current trade war between the two nations. With Trump expected to depart in roughly two years, any third vote on independence would likely be scheduled for 2029 or 2030. Previous referendums in 1980 and 1995 resulted in defeats for the sovereignty movement, and current polls suggest only about 30% of Quebecers support separation today.
Beyond independence, the new premier has vowed to clash with Ottawa over provincial jurisdiction. He has proposed abolishing the monarchy in Quebec and redirecting funds from the lieutenant-governor’s office—currently responsible for representing King Charles III—toward social services, including homelessness initiatives. This stance follows a 2022 decision by Quebec lawmakers, including St-Pierre Plamondon, to make the oath of allegiance to the King optional.
Prime Minister Carney congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon on his election but emphasized that he is focused on immediate national challenges rather than speculative future referendums. The result adds complexity to Carney’s efforts to maintain national unity, particularly as Alberta considers its own potential referendum on separation.
The election outcome reflects significant public fatigue with the former CAQ government under François Legault, who lost substantial support during his eight years in office. Outgoing Premier Christine Fréchette conceded her race in Trois-Rivières and expressed willingness to cooperate with St-Pierre Plamondon on the transition, describing governance as the “greatest honour” of her career.
Quebec has been heavily impacted by recent U.S. tariffs, with Oxford Economics projecting a C$2 billion economic blow to the province. While Carney remains popular in Quebec, his support has dipped slightly following the imposition of tariffs in August.
It is wild to see the CAQ collapse completely. Eight years of ruling and they lost every single seat.
Timing the referendum after Trump leaves makes strategic sense. Quebec needs stability, not chaos during a trade war.