Russia Votes Amid War Fatigue and Rising Anxiety

Russia is preparing for State Duma elections from September 18 to 20, marking the first parliamentary vote since the onset of the war in Ukraine in 2022. Unlike previous cycles, this election is unfolding against a backdrop of deepening public unease. According to a survey by state pollster FOM, nearly half of respondents describe a prevailing sense of alarm in their communities. Independent data from ExtremeScan indicates that 60% of Russians believe the conflict has negatively impacted their daily lives.

Margarita Zavadskaya, a senior research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, attributes this mood to growing uncertainty. She notes that a combination of inflation, stricter internet controls, fuel shortages triggered by Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, and persistent rumors of a new mobilization drive are disrupting long-term planning for citizens. Some Russians are reportedly leaving the country ahead of the polls, fearing conscription.

While official outcomes are expected to favor the Kremlin, turnout remains a critical metric for President Vladimir Putin’s administration. Zavadskaya observed that while the government can manipulate results, the political cost of low engagement is a significant concern. For Putin, the election serves as a legitimacy check; securing a strong mandate for United Russia, the pro-war party, reinforces his authority to continue military operations.

Ilya Yashin, an opposition politician in exile, stated that the results are crucial for demonstrating public support for the “party of war.” However, polling suggests a diverging sentiment. The independent Levada Center reports that six in ten Russians favor peace negotiations. Opposition figure Yulia Galyamina, who remains in Russia, described a “silent majority” that supports Putin but increasingly opposes the war.

The liberal opposition party Yabloko, the only registered force explicitly opposing the conflict, had seen its popularity surge to 18% in recent polls before being barred from the ballot by a court decision. With Yabloko excluded, anti-war strategists have proposed different tactics. Yulia Navalnaya and Maxim Katz are urging voters to support any party other than United Russia to dampen the ruling party’s share. Conversely, Yashin is calling for mass attendance at polling stations at noon on September 20, describing the resulting queues as a visible sign of discontent without the need for symbols or banners.

Responses from DW Russian readers indicated a split approach: some plan to vote to register their position, while others intend to boycott the process entirely to avoid legitimizing the current regime.