In September, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized Yemen’s Perim Island, bringing a major Middle Eastern conflict to the doorstep of Africa. The island controls the narrowest point of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical maritime passage linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, located approximately 20 kilometers from Djibouti and just 20 minutes by air from Ethiopia.
By early October, Yemeni armed forces and Saudi allies launched a counteroffensive to retake the strategic location. Since the onset of the Gaza war in 2023, the Houthis have been attacking merchant vessels, compounding an already fragile economic landscape for African nations. The region is currently grappling with shortages and rising costs of fuel and fertilizer due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. If the Bab el-Mandeb becomes impassable, shipping companies would be forced to route vessels around the southern tip of Africa or through the Suez Canal, significantly increasing costs that would ultimately be passed to consumers.
The humanitarian impact has been immediate for Djibouti. According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), at least 3,700 refugees have crossed from Yemen into Djibouti since September, with the majority being women and children in the northern Obock region. The UNHCR anticipates assisting another 10,000 individuals who have not yet crossed the border. However, infrastructure challenges persist in the arid Obock area, which borders Eritrea. Alessandra Roccasalvo, the UN Development Program representative for Djibouti, highlighted the severe water scarcity, noting that there is no groundwater and all supply must be desalinated.
Djibouti, despite its population of just over one million, serves as a pivotal commercial and military hub for global shipping. Nations including the United States, China, France, Italy, and Japan maintain military bases there, while the country’s civilian ports facilitate transshipment for global cargo. Although docks remain active, the conflict is affecting local economics. Insurance premiums for ships passing through the Red Sea and Suez Canal have nearly doubled, leading many vessels to avoid these routes. This reduction in shipping traffic impacts the demand for construction materials and other resources, dampening the economic upswing.
Landlocked Ethiopia, the world’s most populous nation without sea access, relies on Djibouti’s ports for approximately 95% of its imports and exports. Consequently, the spike in shipping insurance premiums has inflicted severe economic strain. The situation was further complicated on September 23, when fighting erupted in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region. Reports indicate that Ethiopian National Defense Forces have made gains against a rebel coalition aiming to overthrow the government. During the initial stages of this internal conflict, rebels briefly advanced toward the primary transport corridor connecting Djibouti’s ports to the Ethiopian hinterland, raising fears of a trade blockade.
While experts suggest that recent military advances have reduced the immediate threat of blockade, the unresolved nature of the conflict leaves the region vulnerable. Ethiopia has already faced significant fuel rationing due to the Hormuz crisis and is attempting to reduce import dependence through initiatives such as its 2024 ban on internal combustion engine vehicles, becoming the first country globally to implement such a measure.
Regional tensions are further heightened by the severed diplomatic ties between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has previously advocated for restoring access to the sea, a stance that has raised concerns regarding Eritrea’s port of Assab. Analysts warn that if internal conflicts escalate into a broader regional war, safe passage through the Bab el-Mandeb could be further restricted. Additionally, there are growing concerns about potential cooperation between the Shiite Houthis and the Somalia-based Sunni militant group Al-Shabab, united primarily by their opposition to Israel and the United States.
In response to the escalating crisis, the three African non-permanent members of the UN Security Council—the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, and Somalia—held an emergency meeting in mid-September. They issued a joint call for free shipping lanes and advocated for a UN-led diplomatic resolution to the Yemen crisis. Meanwhile, some African economies may find opportunities in the disruption; ports in Kenya and Tanzania are gaining attractiveness as alternative transshipment hubs. Nigeria’s Dangote Group has also announced plans for a new refinery and an initial public offering in Kenya, signaling potential investment in the region’s evolving logistics landscape.
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