Data from prediction market platform Kalshi indicates that while inflation likely reached its peak for 2026 earlier this year, it is expected to remain stubbornly elevated through the rest of the year. Traders are pricing in less than a one-in-three chance that consumer prices will set a new high for 2026, following a peak of 4.2% in May.
Speculators anticipate that the September consumer price index, scheduled for release on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, will reflect a 3.6% year-over-year increase. This figure aligns with FactSet consensus estimates and represents a rise from the 3.4% annual gain recorded in August.
The outlook for core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, suggests a persistent floor for price pressures. Market participants project core inflation to hold steady at 2.4% year-over-year, consistent with economist forecasts. However, the probability of core inflation dropping below 2.2% this year is estimated at just 6%, a level not seen prior to the inflation surge that began in 2021.
Kalshi contracts for these indicators are resolved using official data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. CNBC maintains a commercial relationship with Kalshi, which includes a minority investment.
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