NFL Season and Midterm Elections Drive Record Activity in Prediction Markets

Prediction markets that surged in popularity through political and sports betting over the last two years are preparing for a pivotal autumn driven by the convergence of the NFL season and U.S. midterm elections.

The industry entered the mainstream in 2024, fueled by trading tied to the presidential election, followed by a sustained spike in volume after the NFL season began in September 2025. This year marks the start of another football campaign on Wednesday night with a matchup between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, while Labor Day simultaneously signals the beginning of the midterm election cycle.

Daily notional trading volume now consistently reaches the billions, supported by two major incumbents and numerous smaller exchanges vying for market share. “You have a bit of a supercycle occurring right now within the prediction markets,” said JB Mackenzie, vice president and general manager for futures and prediction markets at Robinhood.

Beyond football and politics, trader interest is expanding to economic indicators, including Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, and Major League Baseball playoffs.

The competitive landscape is intense for newer entrants. Seni Thomas, CEO of EDGE Markets, noted that the current NFL cycle represents a “make or break” moment for many smaller companies, as platforms race to capture volume from sports offerings.

Established platforms are aggressively marketing to fans. Polymarket recently launched a campaign featuring NBA star LeBron James, former NFL quarterback Eli Manning, and former MLB player Derek Jeter, alongside a new feature allowing users to trade and chat in groups. Kalshi reported a record $2.3 billion in trading volume on the first day of college football and has expanded partnerships with MLB teams.

However, the rush to scale has not been without issues. Both Polymarket and Kalshi experienced technical difficulties as college football began. Polymarket’s U.S. platform faced a significant outage on Saturday, resulting in refunds for affected accounts, while Kalshi incorrectly resolved a University of Michigan game before correcting the payout.

Legal challenges persist as well. Platforms continue to face lawsuits from multiple states arguing that sports event contracts constitute gambling and should fall under state regulation rather than the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Ari Borod, president of sports business development at Polymarket, reaffirmed their commitment to operating under CFTC regulations.

Newer competitors are also making moves. Rothera, a joint venture between Susquehanna International Group and Robinhood, saw volumes surge following the FIFA World Cup. Novig, which focuses exclusively on sports contracts, launched an advertising campaign featuring actress Sydney Sweeney. ProphetX, which launched in June, reported that its revenue doubled between June and August, with CEO Dean Sisun expressing optimism about further growth by year-end.

While sports currently dominate, election markets are returning for 2026. Unlike 2024, when such contracts were not initially legal in the U.S., platforms have a longer timeline to prepare. Kalshi launched a midterm election hub in July, and Robinhood is featuring Rothera’s election-related contracts on its brokerage platform.