Nationalist and conservative parties gain ground in Bosnia and Herzegovina elections

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s recent general election did not produce unexpected shifts in voting behavior, but analysts warn the results signal a consolidation of nationalist and conservative forces that could reshape the country’s political climate. According to experts speaking to Al Jazeera, the majority of voters moved further along ethnic lines, moving away from the civic-oriented politics that gained traction during the previous electoral cycle, particularly after the center-right Party of Democratic Action (SDA) chose not to participate in the state government at that time.

This trend has historically been entrenched in the Republika Srpska entity, where Milorad Dodik’s Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) again dominated the races. Meanwhile, in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, voters elected Darijana Filipovic of the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH) to the state presidency, ending an eight-year tenure by Zeljko Komsic of the Democratic Front, a party advocating for a civic political orientation.

Sacir Filandra, a political science professor at the University of Sarajevo, described the outcome as consistent with broader European patterns. He noted that in an era marked by rising instability and fear, conservative and right-wing forces are strengthening across the continent. “We are witnessing the strengthening of conservative views and the revival or consolidation of political right-wing forces as part of wider European trends,” Filandra said. He attributed the voter choice to insecurity, anxiety, and uncertainty.

Political observers emphasize that the full implications of the results will only become clear once parties negotiate coalitions. Filandra pointed out that Bosnian politics remains deeply conservative, with power often reduced to redistribution among established groups rather than genuine reconciliation. “It was not realistic to expect encouraging breakthroughs in terms of political reconciliation,” he added.

The shift in the presidency marks a significant change. During Komsic’s term, Croat nationalist leaders led by Dragan Covic argued that Bosniaks were outvoting Croat candidates for the presidency, despite the electoral system allowing all citizens in the Federation to vote for any candidate. Filipovic’s victory, achieved by defeating Komsic’s preferred candidate Slaven Kovacevic, is seen as the most notable shift in the outcome.

Covic publicly thanked Bosniaks for their role in the result. Historian Dragan Markovina suggested that while no fundamental structural changes are expected, the election could ease tensions between Croat and Bosniak political factions. “Part of the public… sees the change as an opportunity to ease Croat-Bosniak relations,” Markovina said.

In the parliamentary races, the SDA emerged as the leading party in the Federation by vote count, while HDZ performed strongly among Croat voters. Dodik’s SNSD secured the largest number of votes in both the entity and state parliament elections. Turnout remained low at approximately 40 percent, a drop of about 10 percentage points from the previous election. Some analysts attribute this to growing apathy, while others, like independent analyst Srecko Latal, suggest new technological safeguards have reduced ballot fraud, potentially dampening voter enthusiasm.

Looking ahead, Markovina warned of a likely coalition between the SDA, SNSD, and HDZ. He noted that these three conservative parties have dominated post-war Bosnia, often resulting in political deadlock and obstruction. “Much of post-war Bosnia’s history has been spent with these parties in coalitions, and nothing has improved, nor has any fundamental problem been resolved,” he said. Expressing concern over the rise of nationalism in Europe and domestically, Markovina concluded, “Bosnia is moving backwards.”