Min Aung Hlaing has concluded a three-day state visit to Vietnam, marking his sixth official trip abroad since being elected president in April. The visit underscores the Myanmar junta chief’s concerted effort to strengthen bilateral ties with regional neighbors, including India, China, Laos, Thailand, Russia, and now Vietnam, within a five-month span. He is scheduled to travel to Cambodia next Friday, adding another diplomatic destination to his itinerary.
Since assuming the presidency afterDecember-January elections that were widely dismissed as illegitimate, Min Aung Hlaing has shifted focus toward securing political partnerships. Hunter Marston, head of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, noted that these short trips reflect an accelerated strategy by Naypyitaw to diversify its alliances and normalize relations bilaterally, despite the country’s ongoing pariah status.
The diplomatic push comes against a backdrop of severe humanitarian crisis. Since the military ousted the elected government of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, the ensuing civil war has claimed approximately 100,000 lives and displaced more than 3 million people. The United Nations recently reported that human rights conditions have deteriorated further, citing forced recruitment, arson, and indiscriminate airstrikes. These actions have triggered genocide and war crimes filings at The Hague and resulted in extensive international sanctions.
Analysts suggest the regime hopes increased engagement will confer legitimacy, though Scot Marciel, a former US ambassador to Myanmar, emphasized that this strategy has not won over the Myanmar public. Engagement remains limited to nations that maintained some level of interaction with the military prior to the sham elections.
Within ASEAN, Min Aung Hlaing and his foreign ministers continue to be barred from the bloc’s top-level meetings. Malaysia, Indonesia, and current chair the Philippines insist on their exclusion until Myanmar makes tangible progress on a peace plan agreed upon in April 2021. The Myanmar parliament recently rejected the ASEAN peace plan and dismissed the need for the bloc’s special envoys.
Pinitbhand Paribatra, an international relations professor at Thammasat University, stated that the junta leader is unlikely to attend future ASEAN summits in the near term. However, experts believe Thailand’s assumption of the ASEAN chairmanship in 2028 could facilitate reintegration, given Bangkok’s significant security and business interests along the shared 2,400-kilometer border.
Beyond Southeast Asia, Myanmar may find openings with authoritarian allies of Russia in Central Asia and potentially with Japan. Pinitbhand indicated that Japan is prepared to restore normal relations, driven by Japanese private sector investments, though direct visits by Min Aung Hlaing remain unlikely. Marciel also identified Japan and South Korea as potential candidates for normalized ties within the next year.
The prospect of reengagement with Western nations appears remote. Marciel described Myanmar as a low priority for the Trump administration, though he acknowledged that commercial interests could potentially shift US policy. Nevertheless, without the release of Aung San Suu Kyi or significant reforms, and with a potential International Criminal Court arrest warrant pending, Western sanctions are expected to remain in place.
The exclusion from ASEAN summits seems like the only real consequence. Until regional neighbors enforce penalties, this diplomatic tour is just performance.
I remain deeply skeptical that bilateral tourism visits will dismantle the sanctions regime or halt the ongoing atrocities reported by the UN.
Visiting six countries in five months is impressive scheduling, but does it actually change the suffering of three million displaced people?