Provisional figures from ship-tracking firm Kpler indicate that crude oil exports from the Middle East have risen above pre-conflict levels, occurring on four out of the seven days during the final week of September. This data emerges despite heightened military rhetoric and ongoing tensions in the region.
Senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Fadavi dismissed the volume of transit as “negligible” in a televised interview on Sunday. Fadavi claimed that only three to four million barrels per day (bpd) are currently moving through the strategic waterway. He also asserted, for the first time, that no American vessels remain in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman, or the northern Indian Ocean, stating that US warships are “100 percent vulnerable” to IRGC attacks.
However, Kpler’s data paints a different picture of commercial activity. Crude exports surpassed the average rate seen before the US-Israel war on Iran began—which stood at 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026—on September 24 and again from September 27 to 29, peaking between 19.5 million and 22.5 million bpd. The overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd over the seven days leading up to September 30. By October 1, the seven-day moving average for crude exports remained robust at 18.5 million bpd.
The statistics encompass transits via the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Additionally, liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest monthly volume since February. Analysts note that these figures do not account for vessels that may have disabled their automatic identification system transponders to avoid detection.
Security concerns remain high, with the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reporting at least one attack daily in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. Around the time export numbers climbed, Iran claimed success in striking ships, including US Navy vessels, near the strait, alleging the attacks forced Washington to relocate its warships further from the Iranian coastline.
Meanwhile, diplomatic standoff continues. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s top negotiator and parliament speaker, declared on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States accepts Tehran’s seven-point plan for reopening the waterway.
Does this tracking data account for AIS spoofing? Some of those tonnage figures might be artificial to counter the narrative.
Wait, they’re claiming US ships are 100% vulnerable while simultaneously reporting daily attacks? The inconsistency is staggering.
Fadavi’s claims are clearly propaganda. The numbers don’t lie, no matter how much Iran wants the world to believe otherwise.