Latvian Voters Weigh Security Fears Against Economic Pragmatism at Polls

Four German Air Force Eurofighter jets are currently stationed at Latvia’s Lielvarde military air base, located approximately 60 kilometers from Riga. Their deployment is part of broader NATO efforts to bolster air defenses along the alliance’s eastern flank, a response to repeated drone incursions that have heightened alert levels ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for October 3.

Security has emerged as a central theme of this election cycle, with nearly all major political parties incorporating defense commitments into their platforms. These anxieties are grounded in recent events, including a September 15 incident in Lithuania where a drone believed to have crossed from Belarus was shot down by a NATO fighter jet. Additionally, intelligence officials from Latvia and other European nations warn that Russia may attempt to test NATO’s resolve within the coming months rather than years.

Hybrid threats, such as migrant flows encouraged by Belarus to pressure the EU and probe border security, further complicate the regional landscape. Maris Andzans, director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies in Riga, noted that the Baltics are a primary testing ground for Russia seeking to gauge NATO’s responsiveness.

Latvia elects a 100-seat parliament, the Saeima, via proportional representation, a system that typically necessitates coalition governments. Current polls indicate that the centrist United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, holds a slight lead. They are followed by the populist Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance and Latvia First, led by former businessman Ainars Slesers. The center-left Progressives and the conservative National Alliance are also projected to secure seats.

Despite political differences, there is near-unanimous consensus among these parties regarding the threat posed by Russia and Belarus. Agnese Kupca of the United List emphasized that Latvia’s border with Russia is effectively the border of the EU and NATO. The country is one of the few NATO members legally mandated to spend 5% of its GDP on defense. According to the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung’s 2025 Security Radar, Latvians generally hold positive views of NATO, suggesting foreign policy orientation is unlikely to shift regardless of the post-election coalition.

While defense policy enjoys broad support, economic fallout from distancing from Russia remains a contentious issue. Prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia was a key trading partner for Latvia. Since 2022, imports from Russia and Belarus have dropped by over 90%, alongside some of the strictest sanctions in the EU. Businesses previously reliant on Russian trade have been disproportionately affected.

Political analyst Filips Rajevskis highlighted that proximity to the conflict zone has impacted the investment climate, making economic growth a critical question for voters. However, public opinion leans toward decoupling; 60% of Latvians support reducing dependence on Russia, according to the FES radar. One resident in Riga stated it was impossible to maintain friendly ties with Russia while observing current events.

Conversely, approximately 20% of the population favors closer ties with Russia, and calls for a more pragmatic approach persist in political discourse. Julija Stepanenko, leader of the Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance, has argued against severing all economic links with Russia and Belarus. This stance has drawn scrutiny after it was revealed she received gifts worth roughly €400,000 from her father, a businessman in Russia whose company produces construction materials, including anti-tank obstacles known as “dragon’s teeth.” Despite this controversy, her party remains in second place in the polls.

During a campaign event in Riga, party candidate Lyubov Shvetsova rejected accusations of being pro-Russian, describing the party’s approach as pragmatic and oriented toward Latvian business interests. Similarly, Ainars Slesers of Latvia First, which sits third in the polls with over 9% support, has argued that goods transit with Russia should continue provided it complies with EU sanctions. His party prioritizes economic growth and investment over what it views as excessive self-restrictions.

However, Slesers’ party member Edmunds Zivtins clarified that fully restoring trade with Russia is not an option while the war in Ukraine continues. Analysts suggest that parties advocating pragmatic economic engagement may attract voters alienated by restrictive policies, particularly among the Russian-speaking minority, which comprises about one-third of the population. Many in this demographic feel overlooked by mainstream parties regarding issues such as the phase-out of Russian-language education.

The election outcome remains uncertain, with analyst Filips Rajevskis noting that many voters are reluctant to disclose even their intention to vote. As Latvians cast their ballots, Moscow continues to shape the campaign both directly and indirectly, serving as a unifying security threat that reinforces NATO support while simultaneously dividing the electorate on economic and cultural questions.