A broad area of low pressure moving up from the Atlantic is expected to pull warm air from the south and south-east across the United Kingdom early this week, though precipitation will accompany the shift for many regions.
Tuesday is projected to be the peak of the warmth, with temperatures gradually returning to seasonal norms afterward. While much of the country will face a period of increased wind and rain driven by the approaching depression, central, southern, and eastern areas of England—which have recently battled drought conditions—may see significantly less rainfall.
Seasonal Shifts and Evening Forecast
Following the autumn equinox last week, nights are now longer than days. Consequently, despite the sunny and warm days, clear skies are leading to cooler nights. Monday morning is expected to be notably crisp, with residents advised to watch for fog patches during their commute.
Once the fog lifts, high pressure should allow for bright intervals and only a few isolated showers for much of the country. South-east England might experience some afternoon and evening rain, though this remains uncertain. Temperatures are forecast to sit in the mid to high teens, with southern locations potentially reaching 20C.
Weekly Outlook
On Tuesday, strengthening southerly winds will usher in significantly warmer conditions. Scotland and Northern Ireland are expected to see temperatures in the high teens, while England and Wales could range between 20C and 26C. However, rain will likely move into Northern Ireland during the afternoon, gradually drifting eastward through the evening and night. These conditions may become persistent and occasionally heavy, with strong winds and gales expected along exposed coasts and hills.
To the east, drier and brighter weather may hold until Wednesday, when rain could arrive and potentially linger overnight. Behind the front, Wednesday will bring back sunny spells and scattered showers, remaining windy in western areas. By Thursday, high pressure is forecast to build, resulting in calmer and drier weather, with any showers focusing on the north-west by Friday.
Rainfall Contrasts Persist
After the UK recorded its hottest summer on record, September has remained unusually warm for many. However, a stark contrast in rainfall has emerged between the north-west and south-east.
While Scotland and western regions have been frequently battered by Atlantic systems bringing wind and rain, much of central, southern, and eastern England has remained largely dry with abundant sunshine. In drought-affected parts of England, rainfall totals have been minimal, whereas north-west Scotland has seen excessive wet weather.
Locations such as Kirkwall and Prestwick have already received nearly one-and-a-half times their average September rainfall. In the Highlands at Achnagart, rain has fallen every day for the past 27 days. Meanwhile, parts of Northern Ireland and Wales have experienced average rainfall, and north-east England has recorded some of the lowest totals so far this month.
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