Iraq Prepares for End of US-Led Coalition Mission Amid Sovereignty Challenges

Iraq has confirmed that the US-led international military coalition will end its mission in the country by September 30, marking a significant shift in its long-standing security relationship with Washington. Lieutenant General Abdul Amir al-Shammari, director of the Office of the Commander-in-Chief, announced the date to the Iraqi News Agency on Monday, describing it as the start of a new chapter in bilateral cooperation.

The announcement follows earlier confirmation from Qasim al-Araji, security adviser to Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, that the withdrawal would proceed this month. Under a 2024 agreement between Baghdad and Washington, the drawdown includes the removal of US air defense systems from Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdish region. These Patriot batteries have been critical in intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles and drones targeting the area during the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran.

The prime minister’s office stated that October 1 will symbolize Iraq’s freedom from foreign military presence, calling it a prerequisite for the nation’s development and prosperity. Prime Minister al-Zaidi, who also serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, recently chaired an emergency National Security Council meeting to discuss the transition.

However, analysts suggest the withdrawal may be largely symbolic. Iyad al-Anbar, a political science professor at the University of Baghdad, noted that US forces have already consolidated their presence primarily at the Harir base in Erbil, having exited numerous other facilities including Camp Victory near Baghdad International Airport and positions within the Green Zone.

Despite the ceremonial nature of the exit, significant domestic challenges remain. Al-Zaidi has imposed a deadline for non-state armed groups to disarm or face terrorism charges, escalating rhetoric from militant factions such as Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Harakat al-Nujaba, and Kataib Hezbollah. Experts highlight that key positions in the defense and interior ministries remain vacant, complicating efforts to centralize authority over weapons.

Former US diplomat Marlin Hardinger told Al Jazeera that while the formal medium-term security commitment has ended, Washington will likely maintain residual counterterrorism and intelligence operations centered around the embassy and consulate. He added that the Trump administration may increasingly focus on economic engagement to bolster the prime minister’s position, though the move could alarm regional allies concerned about stability during the war with Iran.

The departure of US forces raises urgent questions about northern Iraq’s defense capabilities. Hassan al-Barari, an international relations professor at the University of Jordan, warned that Baghdad may lack the capacity to defend its airspace against potential Iranian drone or missile strikes without American Patriot systems. He cautioned that failure to monopolize force could lead to a security vacuum and deepen Iranian influence over Iraqi governance.