Iran’s nuclear program remains shrouded in mystery as the regime debates ditching non-proliferation

Title: Iran's nuclear program remains shrouded in mystery as the regime debates ditching non-proliferation

URL Source: https://www.dw.com/en/iran-s-nuclear-program-remains-shrouded-in-mystery-as-the-regime-debates-ditching-non-proliferation/a-79488197?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf

Published Time: 2026-09-30T14:01:25.857Z

Markdown Content:

[Iran](https://www.dw.com/en/iran/t-18996175)'s nuclear program has entered one of the most critical periods in its history.

Questions over Tehran's [stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%](https://www.dw.com/en/iaea-warns-iran-has-upped-enriched-uranium-production/a-72744504) and the [International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA)](https://www.dw.com/en/international-atomic-energy-agency-iaea/t-17449170) declining oversight of Iranian nuclear facilities have only deepened the uncertainty. Yet signs of diplomacy remain.

In an interview last week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told US broadcaster Fox News that Tehran is prepared to [dilute its enriched uranium stockpile](https://www.dw.com/en/iranian-president-pezeshkian-brought-a-diplomatic-tone-to-new-york-for-unga-what-did-his-remarks-signal/a-79428890) and submit its nuclear program for international inspection, provided a comprehensive agreement is reached within the framework of international law and the landmark[Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://www.dw.com/en/will-iran-withdraw-from-nuclear-non-proliferation-treaty/a-78495930) (NPT).

Conflicting statements from Iran

However, in contrast to Pezeshkian's diplomatic rhetoric, statements from military and political figures in Tehran point in a different direction.

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said that [US and Israeli actions](https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-us-launches-new-round-of-strikes/live-77942892) had created grounds for Iran to withdraw from the NPT, while stressing that no decision had yet been made, according to Press TV, the Iranian government's main English-language satellite TV channel.

On September 19, British newspaper _The Daily Telegraph_, citing satellite imagery, reported that Iran was actively constructing new facilities and rebuilding damaged ones.

These sites include "Taleghan 2" at the Parchin complex southeast of [Tehran](https://www.dw.com/en/tehran/t-40246359) and a complex burrowed under what is known as[Pickaxe Mountain](https://www.dw.com/en/why-irans-pickaxe-mountain-is-a-tough-target-for-the-us/a-78100313) near Iran's nuclear facility in Natanz.

Both sites were previously targeted in airstrikes during the [US-Israel war with Iran](https://www.dw.com/en/charting-the-us-israel-war-with-iran/a-76209201), which the Pentagon dubbed Operation [Epic Fury](https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war/t-76168615) and Israel called Operation [Roaring Lion](https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-nears-two-week-mark/live-76340941).

Their reported reconstruction has fueled speculation that equipment and enriched uranium may have been moved deeper underground.

Washington has maintained a firm stance. Speaking at the UN General Assembly on September 22, US President Donald Trump said: "I will never allow Iran to have a [nuclear weapon](https://www.dw.com/en/nuclear-weapons/t-63414896)."

Can diplomacy still work?

Access to military sites and the scope of IAEA inspections have long been among the most contentious issues related to Iran's nuclear program.

The 2015 nuclear agreement known as the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)](https://www.dw.com/en/iran-us-war-nuclear-weapons-jcpoa-barak-obama-donald-trump/a-76798388) imposed significant restrictions on Iran, in exchange for sanctions relief, to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.

However, provisions for the inspection of military sites drew persistent criticism from opponents in Washington, criticism that contributed to the US withdrawal from the JCPOA under Donald Trump in 2018.

John Bolton, former US national security adviser and former US ambassador to the UN, told DW that diplomatic efforts and past agreements on Iran's nuclear program are merely a "cover for an unalterable strategy pursued by Tehran."

Arguing that Iran's weapons program was "never" truly halted, Bolton pointed to what he described as the limitations of international institutions, adding that "the IAEA never had access to Iran's military bases, where critical components related to weaponization take place."

When asked about the legal implications of a potential Iranian withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Bolton argued that Iran has been in violation of the NPT for more than three decades, meaning a formal withdrawal would make little practical difference.

"The only long-term path to achieving peace and security in the Middle East," Bolton emphasized, "is the overthrow of the regime in Tehran."

War steels Tehran's nuclear resolve

Amid the US-Israel war with Iran and the subsequent changes in Tehran's command structure after the death of former Supreme Leader [Ali Khamenei](https://www.dw.com/en/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-the-man-who-wanted-to-destroy-israel/a-76169184), fresh developments have emerged.

Trump threatens to 'annihilate' Iran if no deal is reached

[Video 5](https://hlsvod.dw.com/i/vps/webvideos/ENG/2026/DWVG/DWVGENG260922_SOTTrumpUN_01SMW_,AVC_480x270,AVC_512x288,AVC_640x360,AVC_960x540,AVC_1280x720,AVC_1920x1080,.mp4.csmil/master.m3u8)

06:25

The IAEA Board of Governors referred Iran to the [UN Security Council](https://www.dw.com/en/un-security-council/t-63264650) on September 9 over alleged breaches of its non-proliferation obligations.

Meanwhile, the 60-day period for technical talks with the United States under the so-called [Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding](https://www.dw.com/en/us-iran-deal-between-conflict-and-compromise/a-77606668), which extended a ceasefire between the two sides, expired in mid-August.

Damon Golriz, a political analyst and lecturer at The Hague University of Applied Sciences, argues that, contrary to Donald Trump's view of his legacy in dismantling Iran's nuclear capabilities, a nuclear-armed Iran would ultimately prove to be "the greatest foreign policy legacy of Donald Trump's presidency."

Reflecting on the military developments of 2026 and the [killing of Khamenei in an Israeli air strike](https://www.dw.com/en/khameneis-death-never-thought-i-would-see-this-day/a-76175776), Golriz said: "In February 2026 Tehran faced an existential war."

"The campaign entombed its nuclear facilities and decapitated its key weapons scientists, along with at least five tiers of Iran's top military and security establishment," Golriz added.

"Israel's killing of the supreme leader settled a fundamental security question: Has Ayatollah Khamenei as the main constraint on Iran's nuclear bomb became obsolete?"

Golriz suggests that it was specifically the audacity shown in the targeting of Iran's leadership that upended the country's national security thinking, thereby "strengthening calls to reassess its nuclear doctrine."

Testing Tehran's religious rhetoric on nukes

The official religious decree, or fatwa, banning the production and stockpiling of nuclear weapons has long been a cornerstone of Tehran's diplomatic rhetoric in claiming its nuclear program is peaceful.

First cited by Iranian officials in the mid-2000s, the fatwa was reaffirmed by Khamenei in 2019, when he said producing and stockpiling nuclear weapons was forbidden.

Has Iran war harmed nuclear nonproliferation efforts?

[Video 6](https://hlsvod.dw.com/i/dwtv_video/flv/je/je20260327_IranNuclearFS_,AVC_480x270,AVC_512x288,AVC_640x360,AVC_960x540,AVC_1280x720,AVC_1920x1080,.mp4.csmil/master.m3u8)

14:01

However, amid political developments in Tehran and Mojtaba Khamenei's silence on reaffirming this fatwa since becoming the new supreme leader, questions have been raised whether this religious red line remains intact or has given way to new security considerations.

Thim Bosch, CEO of the Birdwatcher Group and a former senior intelligence officer with the Dutch General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD), pointed to the significance of this silence alongside rhetoric from military figures in Tehran.

Bosch told DW that there is no definitive proof of a formal change in Tehran's nuclear doctrine.

"However, those opposed to acquiring nuclear weapons in Tehran are now far weaker, and given Mojtaba Khamenei's silence in reiterating his father's fatwa, this observation carries significant weight," he said.

In December 2024, the IAEA assessed that Iran was the only country without a nuclear bomb to posses uranium enriched to 60%, while [warning Tehran was "dramatically accelerating" enrichment](https://www.dw.com/en/iran-dramatically-increasing-uranium-enrichment-iaea-warns/a-70988888). A purity of 90% is needed to produce nuclear weapons.

However, with the IAEA barred from inspections, it is anyone's guess as to how far along Iran currently is.

"If the world's nuclear watchdog cannot observe enriched uranium, no intelligence agency can honestly claim to know whether Iran has made the final decision to build a bomb," Bosch said.

"Those who claim with absolute certainty that 'they have made their decision' are either bluffing or mostly advancing their own political agendas: hardliners in Iran on one side, and hardliners in Israel and the United States on the other," he added.

_Edited by: Keith Walker_