Hybrid Warfare: Russian Threat Casts Long Shadow Over the Mediterranean

A recent investigation by the Spanish daily El Mundo, published on September 24, has brought to light allegations that the CIA warned several Mediterranean nations of an impending Russian hybrid warfare operation. According to American intelligence, the suspected plot involves launching Gerbera drones from Russian vessels disguised as commercial merchant ships, with potential targets including Spain, Italy, and France.

The report specifies that these drones are smaller and lighter than the Shahed or Geran systems currently used in Ukraine. A merchant vessel could transport multiple units, reaching European coastlines within one to two hours. However, due to their compact size, the weapons would likely carry minimal ammunition. The primary objective appears to be psychological: to create shock and inflict only minor physical damage through unexpected attacks, according to Lithuanian officials cited in the report.

Despite these intelligence briefings, French President Emmanuel Macron disputed the claims during an interview with TF1 and France 2 on Thursday evening. He stated that he was unaware of any Russian plans and asserted that the CIA had not notified French authorities about any potential attack.

This contradiction highlights the ambiguous nature of such revelations. Mark Lacy, a Russian hybrid warfare specialist at Lancaster University, described the scenario as a potential act of cognitive warfare. He suggested that Moscow may have deliberately leaked the existence of these plans to manufacture uncertainty and panic, without any actual intention to execute the attack. “Threat can be more effective than execution,” Lacy noted, adding that Western governments also have an incentive to treat the threat seriously to deter Putin.

Mario Baumann, an expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, argued that a hybrid attack on the Mediterranean is entirely plausible. He pointed out that while previous drone strikes and cyberattacks have focused on northern and central Europe, the entire continent is vulnerable. Baumann cited historical precedents, including Russian support for Catalan independence in 2017, cyberattacks on Spanish banking infrastructure in 2024, and vandalism at the Paris Holocaust Memorial in May 2024, which led to the sentencing of four Bulgarians linked to Russian intelligence.

Experts warn that Southern Europe represents a weak point in European hybrid defense. Julian Pawlak, a maritime security specialist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, noted that while countries like Poland and Germany struggle to counter these tactics, the situation is more complex in regions where the perception of danger is lower.

The timing of these threats is critical, as Spain, Italy, and France all face major elections in 2027. Christian Kaunert from the University of South Wales highlighted that Russian hybrid warfare often aims to instill fear and anxiety among populations, potentially influencing voters to support parties that advocate for reduced aid to Ukraine, such as Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Drones are viewed as ideal tools for inciting paranoia, whether through surveillance over airports or attacks on underwater cables. Although Russia’s fleet has less freedom of movement in the Mediterranean since the war in Ukraine began, experts suggest Moscow could outsource logistical challenges to organized crime networks, similar to the 2023 assassination of Russian defector Maxime Kouzminov in Spain.

Pawlak also noted a strategic advantage regarding energy: increased NATO focus on Mediterranean security could inadvertently benefit Russian oil shipments transporting through northern Europe.