Hurricane Polo, one of the most potent storms of the Pacific season, has been downgraded to Category 4 status but continues to pose significant risks as it tracks parallel to Mexico’s southwestern coastline. According to the US National Hurricane Center, the system remains “very powerful” despite the reduction in intensity.
On Tuesday, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Hunter aircraft penetrated the storm, recording sustained winds of approximately 180 mph (285 km/h) with even stronger gusts. The slow-moving cyclone was previously classified as a Category 5, the highest rating on the scale, before dropping to Category 4 on Wednesday morning.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed during a Tuesday address that Polo is not expected to make direct landfall. However, she urged residents along the Pacific coast to remain vigilant, specifically highlighting the states of Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán as areas at risk.
Forecasters warn that the storm will generate torrential rainfall across the region, with totals potentially reaching 6 inches (15 cm) and up to 8 inches in isolated areas. Authorities have issued alerts for life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly in zones with steep terrain, as well as dangerous ocean swells and surf conditions expected to persist for several days.
Data from reconnaissance flights suggests Polo retains the potential to strengthen due to an environment NOAA described as “very conducive.” The storm is being fueled by exceptionally warm ocean waters driven by the current El Niño climate phenomenon. Scientists report that this is the strongest El Niño on record, with daily sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific reaching 3.05C above average on September 19, surpassing the previous record of 3.02C set in 2015.
In response to the threat, members of Mexico’s National Guard have begun patrolling beaches in areas such as Acapulco as part of the DN-III disaster relief plan coordinated with the Army and Air Force.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern occurring every two to seven years, typically lasting about a year. It involves a weakening or reversal of trade winds, allowing warm water to spread eastward across the Pacific. This process releases heat into the atmosphere, boosting global temperatures and altering weather patterns worldwide. While long-term indicators have not yet hit record levels, experts anticipate they will as the phenomenon peaks later this year.
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