Some Republicans are privately arguing that President Donald Trump bears responsibility for turning a traditionally secure Texas Senate seat into a toss-up this fall. Trump’s low approval ratings, his management of the primary field, and his reluctance to deploy his substantial financial resources to defend Attorney General Ken Paxton have inadvertently strengthened Democratic prospects in a state where they have not won a statewide office in over three decades.
Paxton currently trails Democratic state representative James Talarico in several recent polls. The situation is further complicated by Talarico’s ability to raise funds at a rate that significantly outpaces the Republican incumbent, providing the Democrat with the capital needed to compete in a sprawling and expensive electoral landscape that GOP strategists had assumed would be easily retained.
Mark Jones, a politics expert at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, characterized the contest as a “perfect storm” for Democrats. He cited Trump’s unpopularity, negative economic sentiment among Texans, Paxton’s extensive legal and personal controversies, and Talarico’s credibility as a politician. Jones noted that Paxton represents the most flawed major statewide candidate the Republican Party has fielded in modern memory.
Trump possessed the means to alter the race’s trajectory. His affiliated super PAC, MAGA Inc., held more than $400 million this summer as Paxton sought assistance. However, sources close to the president indicate that Trump initially hesitated to invest heavily, questioning the utility of spending given the historical trend of midterm losses for the party in power. A senior Trump adviser stated that while tens of millions will be spent in the coming cycle, the administration is keeping its financial strategy secret to avoid alerting opponents.
Beyond midterm calculations, other aides indicated Trump is preserving cash for the post-presidency era, potentially through 2030, to maintain influence over the party. One aide remarked that Trump views the midterms as likely unwinnable and prioritizes having funds available when he can no longer raise money at his current capacity.
After weeks of pressure, MAGA Inc. committed $10 million on September 5 for advertising supporting Paxton and attacking Talarico. During a GOP convention in Dallas, Trump endorsed Paxton but framed his praise with commentary on the attorney general’s appearance and communication skills. Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist, warned that losing both chambers of Congress would invite relentless legal and investigative challenges for the president.
The path to this precarious general election began in late 2024 when Trump sought to replace Senator John Cornyn, a close ally of Senate Republican Leader John Thune, due to Cornyn’s lukewarm relationship with the party base and past criticisms regarding January 6. Although Cornyn voted with Trump 99% of the time, the president resented his earlier hesitation during the primaries. With Cornyn running for re-election, the only serious challenger was Paxton, who faced multiple legal and ethical hurdles, including a dropped securities fraud case and an impeachment trial.
Representative Wesley Hunt, a Black Republican and combat veteran, pitched himself to Trump in March 2025 as a candidate with MAGA credentials but without Paxton’s liabilities. Hunt presented polling showing Cornyn’s unpopularity and argued that a contest between Cornyn and Paxton would jeopardize the seat. Despite advice from allies to offer Cornyn an exit, the senator declined to step aside.
Trump’s reluctance to intervene allowed Cornyn’s allies to mobilize, spending nearly $13 million to attack Hunt. Trump ultimately refused to endorse Cornyn before the primary, leading to a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton. By May, with Paxton leading, Trump’s pollsters concluded his support could not save Cornyn. Trump endorsed Paxton a week before the runoff and claimed credit for the victory.
Since then, Paxton has struggled to attract significant funding from major Republican super PACs. MAGA Inc. had spent only $800,000 by late August on the race, while the Senate Leadership Fund also withheld substantial support. The Paxton campaign looked to Elon Musk, whose super PAC contributed approximately $1.6 million, though some Texas Republicans viewed Musk’s involvement as politically complicated due to his advocacy for AI data centers and H-1B visas.
Eventually, the Senate Leadership Fund committed $54 million to the effort, with executive director Alex Latcham emphasizing the party’s unity in keeping Texas red. Trump’s recent convention appearance aimed to provide momentum, though high ticket prices left some seats empty. Trump urged Texans to elect Paxton, promising to return to the state if necessary, while continuing to offer colorful, if backhanded, compliments about the attorney general’s demeanor and looks.
Trump hoarding cash for his post-presidency instead of securing Senate control feels incredibly short-sighted. If they lose both chambers, the legal headaches will be immense.
It is wild that the party leadership would let a known liability run against a rising star without putting real money behind him. The math just doesn’t add up for a safe seat.