Houthi Control of Yemen’s Coast Risks Red Sea Shipping Stability

Houthi militias have secured full control over Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, including the strategically vital Bab al-Mandeb passage, completing a rapid offensive on Friday. This advance includes the capture of the port city of Mocha on Thursday, dealing a severe blow to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government and marking what analysts describe as the most significant regional shift since the onset of the US-Israeli war on Iran in February.

Experts warn that the group’s dominance over the Bab al-Mandeb corridor could exacerbate the ongoing global energy crisis. Following Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on an alternative export route via the Red Sea. The kingdom’s East-West Crude Oil Pipeline, which transports oil from the Abqaiq field to the port of Yanbu, is now operating at full capacity, pumping up to seven million barrels per day. Consequently, oil shipments through Bab al-Mandeb have risen by 21 percent since the conflict began.

The Houthi takeover raises fresh concerns for Riyadh, as the group had already targeted Saudi energy infrastructure and vessels in the Red Sea following their maritime blockade declaration in July. Satellite imagery released by Reuters on September 8 showed smoke rising from a Saudi Aramco distribution center in Abha, while reports of smoke near the East-West pipeline emerged this week, though Saudi authorities have not confirmed direct hits.

For Tehran, the Houthi gains represent a substantial geopolitical leverage. Alam Saleh, a professor of international relations at the Australian National University, noted that Iran now effectively controls both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb, a combination that significantly boosts its position in the stalemate with Washington. This escalation puts additional pressure on the US, where surging fuel and food prices are fueling domestic discontent ahead of the November midterm elections.

Military analysts suggest the Houthi victory stems less from being underestimated and more from the fragmentation of Yemeni government forces. Despite outnumbering the Houthis with an estimated 300,000 troops against the rebels’ 250,000, the government side suffers from internal divisions and a lack of cohesion. Mohamad Elmasry of the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies described the Houthis as a more advanced fighting force, bolstered by years of Iranian support including missiles, drones, and air defense systems.

However, questions remain regarding the group’s ability to sustain a long-term blockade. Andreas Krieg of King’s College London argued that while the Houthis are militarily capable, they lack governance skills and may struggle to maintain control indefinitely. He added that the mere perception of danger in the strait is often enough to deter shipping companies and insurers.

Saudi Arabia has responded with aerial strikes on Houthi positions, including Mocha, but these efforts have not halted the advance. Efforts to secure international military aid appear stalled; reports indicate that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman requested US air strikes from President Donald Trump, who declined. Meanwhile, a recent defense pact involving Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkiye is unlikely to be activated, as these nations seek to avoid further escalation in the broader regional conflict.