Voting has commenced in two pivotal regional elections across Germany, with early indicators suggesting significant gains for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. The outcomes in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania are viewed as a critical stress test for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose approval ratings have hit record lows amid frustration over the pace of governmental reforms and the surging popularity of populist rivals.
Merz, who leads the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), made a rare public campaign appearance at a rally in Berlin on Thursday, signaling the high stakes attached to these contests. Earlier in the week, national polls revealed his personal approval rating had dropped to 14%, while the AfD climbed to between 27% and 29% support. A YouGov survey released Friday indicated that approximately half of German respondents do not expect Merz to remain chancellor by the end of the year.
The Battle in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
In the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the election is characterized as a direct showdown between the incumbent Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the AfD. Manuela Schwesig, the state’s premier and SPD leader, faces a formidable challenge from Leif-Erik Holm, the AfD’s candidate for state premier.
Schwesig described the political climate as “serious,” warning that the AfD’s rhetoric threatens economic stability and social cohesion. Her party currently trails the AfD in polling, with the conservatives holding 33% compared to the far-right’s 37%.
A key concern for the CDU is its standing in this rural state. Chaired by Chancellor Merz, the CDU is polling at approximately 7%, barely clearing the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament. This represents a dramatic decline from the 13.3% the party achieved in the 2021 elections. Failure to secure the threshold would place immense pressure on Merz to retain his leadership position.
Despite potential electoral success, the AfD remains unlikely to govern due to the “firewall” policy, a longstanding agreement among major German parties to exclude the far-right from coalition negotiations.
Berlin’s Housing Crisis Takes Center Stage
In the capital, the campaign has been dominated by a tight race between the CDU and the Left Party (Die Linke). Seventeen parties are contesting the election, with the Greens, SPD, and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) also fielding candidates. Housing costs have emerged as the primary concern for voters in a city where 85% of residents rent their homes and advertised rents have doubled since 2014.
The Left Party, led by Elif Eralp, has positioned itself as the only major faction willing to enforce a 2021 referendum result that seeks government control over large landlords to cap rents. Meanwhile, the AfD has leveraged the housing shortage to argue for stricter immigration controls.
Stefan Evers leads the CDU ticket after former mayor Kai Wegner withdrew from the race. Evers, currently Berlin’s finance chief, faces a challenging path to reclaiming ground lost in previous regional elections.
Historic Electoral Changes
Both states are implementing a new voting eligibility rule for the first time, allowing 16- and 17-year-olds to cast ballots in regional and district assembly elections. EU citizens are also eligible to vote in Berlin’s district assemblies.
Exit polls are anticipated around 16:00 GMT. While the AfD is expected to perform strongly in both regions, political analysts note that electoral success does not guarantee governmental power in Germany’s parliamentary system, where coalition building remains essential.
Remember, winning votes isn’t the same as governing. The firewall should still hold, but the political pressure on the coalition must be immense right now.
It is genuinely shocking that half of Germans don’t expect him to last until year-end. The housing crisis in Berlin seems to be the main driver.
If the CDU fails the five percent threshold in Mecklenburg, Merz’s leadership will likely be over before winter. Serious structural collapse for the party.