Following the unprovoked drone attack on Leipzig Airport on September 1, which German authorities have attributed to Moscow, the federal government has signaled a tougher stance against Russia’s “shadow fleet.” This network of aging, poorly insured vessels with opaque ownership is widely used by Russia to bypass international sanctions and fund its military operations.
However, enforcing these measures presents significant challenges. Julian Pawlak, a maritime security expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), noted that international maritime law primarily safeguards the freedom of commercial shipping. He explained that transporting goods via the high seas is not inherently illegal. The complexity arises from the fleet’s connection to hybrid threats, including espionage, sabotage, and potential drone activities.
Critics within Germany argue that the government has been too passive. Sara Nanni, a security policy spokesperson for the Green Party, told DW that Russia finances its war in Ukraine and its aggression toward Europe through these vessels. She accused Berlin of failing to act, pointing to countries like Finland, the UK, France, and Sweden that have adopted stricter inspection regimes. Nanni described Interior Minister Nancy Faeser’s claims of technical and legal difficulties as a political choice rather than an insurmountable barrier.
Nanni specifically highlighted Finland’s response to the tanker “Eagle S,” which damaged the Estlink 2 power cable in the Gulf of Finland. Although criminal charges were later dismissed, experts credited the detention with sending a clear warning that changed Russian behavior. Similarly, the Swedish Coast Guard routinely detains vessels suspected of belonging to the shadow fleet if they lack proper insurance or carry forged documents.
Despite these examples, some analysts suggest that fears of escalation may be hindering German action. The right-wing AfD party gained ground in Saxony-Anhalt on a platform advocating closer ties with Russia, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has described Germany’s accusations as the start of a “real war.” Nevertheless, Johannes Peters of Kiel University’s Institute for Security Policy argues that Russian retaliation has been minimal. He noted that laden tankers are now actively avoiding Swedish waters due to increased inspections, suggesting that the threat of escalation is largely rhetorical.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has stated that the government will ensure those responsible for hybrid attacks “pay a price.” Peters believes this rhetoric will force the administration to take concrete steps. However, he cautioned that inspections alone cannot dismantle the shadow fleet; the goal is to increase operational costs and create uncertainty for Russian operators.
Pawlak warned that boarding operations carry inherent dangers, particularly the presence of armed crews linked to Russian mercenary groups. He cited the case of the tanker “Jaguar” in May 2025, where Estonian authorities were forced to stand down after Russia scrambled a fighter jet to protect the vessel. While Russia can easily deploy military support in the Baltic Sea, Pawlak noted that escorting vessels in distant waters like the English Channel is far more difficult.
Ultimately, Peters emphasized that raising the stakes for Russian shipping could yield significant economic losses. If inspection delays reduce the number of daily voyages from three to one, or extend trip durations, Russia could lose hundreds of millions of euros—a critical blow to its war economy.
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