Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, has taken an early lead over incumbent leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the country’s presidential election. Early results from Sunday’s voting indicate a significant advantage for the right-wing senator, raising stakes in a race defined by deep political divisions.
According to data from Brazil’s electoral court, Flavio Bolsonaro captured 51% of the vote after 10% of ballots were processed, while Lula received 40.8%. Because Brazil utilizes electronic voting machines, final results are expected to be available within several hours of the polls closing.
The 80-year-old Lula concluded his campaign on Saturday with a rally in Sao Paulo, drawing an estimated 150,000 supporters. Vowing to “defeat the far right,” the incumbent has campaigned on continuing the platform of his Workers’ Party, which includes welfare programs, state-funded development, and income redistribution. “The people will have to choose between strengthening the democratic regime and barbarism… between progress and backwardness,” Lula said as he cast his ballot.
In contrast, Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, led a motorcycle parade through the countryside cities of Santa Barbara d’Oeste and Americana on Saturday. Holding up a portrait of his father, he rallied crowds chanting “mito” (legend), a term used by Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters. The senator has campaigned on hardline security policies and tax cuts, criticizing Lula as “incompetent” and highlighting the high cost of living under the current administration. “Brazil needs change. Brazil cannot bear any more suffering, such as high taxes, so many women killed,” he stated.
The election carries personal and political weight for Flavio Bolsonaro, as his father is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn the results of the 2022 election. Flavio has vowed to pardon his father if elected. Meanwhile, Lula’s campaign has framed the Bolsonaro movement as a threat to Brazil’s sovereignty, pointing to the family’s ties with US President Donald Trump. Trump previously imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports in response to Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial and has described the legal proceedings against the former president as a “witch hunt,” though he has not officially endorsed his son’s candidacy.
Recent polling by the research firm Quaest showed a tight race, with Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45%. However, the campaigning period has been marked by bitterness and online disinformation, with both sides producing AI-generated content and slick videos to exploit gaffes and rumors. Additionally, Flavio Bolsonaro faces ongoing investigations for alleged corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion related to the financing of a biopic about his father, allegations he denies.
The personal drama here is intense. Pardon his father while facing corruption charges? Brazil really is in a wild political moment.
A ten percent lead is huge, but early counts can shift. Let’s see how the urban votes come in before celebrating.