Fears Mount That Renewed Tigray Conflict Could Ignite Wider Horn of Africa War

Hostilities have erupted once again in northern Ethiopia, raising alarms that the conflict could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa. On September 23, Tigrayan forces launched a significant offensive in the Tigray region, with reports of clashes extending into the neighboring Afar and Amhara areas. This escalation poses a direct threat to the fragile peace established by the 2022 Pretoria agreement, which ended the previous war between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

The central concern among experts is whether this resurgence of violence will connect with existing rivalries and wars already destabilizing the Red Sea region. Martin Plaut, a British journalist and Horn of Africa specialist, warned that the conflict could easily transcend Ethiopia’s borders. “If a conflict were to spill over, it is quite possible that a conflict involving Eritrea and Ethiopia could then involve Sudanese forces as well, which could drag the whole region into a war,” Plaut told DW.

Jalale Getachew Birru, a senior analyst at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), emphasized that the situation cannot be viewed in isolation. She noted that the conflict is part of a broader pattern of instability, interacting with shifting alliances and competing interests in neighboring Sudan and Somalia. “The Ethiopian case is not an isolated case for the Horn of Africa,” Birru stated. “It involves the neighboring countries as well, and it’s being displayed across the Horn of Africa countries.”

The African Union has expressed deep alarm, urging immediate restraint. In a statement on September 23, AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf cautioned that new political and military alliances risk reversing progress made since 2020. The AU called for renewed direct talks under the Pretoria agreement and tasked former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo with supporting diplomatic efforts.

Tensions are further complicated by recent political maneuvers. The TPLF has joined six other Ethiopian armed groups in an alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. Notably, this alliance includes the Amhara Fano movement, which fought against the TPLF during the previous war. Although the alliance is not a unified military force and its members have divergent objectives, its formation could force the federal government to contend with multiple fronts simultaneously.

The fighting in the Afar region is particularly strategic, as it houses the primary transport corridor linking landlocked Ethiopia to the port of Djibouti. Sustained conflict there could sever a vital economic lifeline for Ethiopia. Beyond Afar lies Eritrea, whose role remains critical. During the 2020–2022 war, Eritrean troops fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces against the TPLF. However, relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have deteriorated, exacerbated by Ethiopia’s ambitions for Red Sea access.

Plaut highlighted the risk of Eritrean involvement, noting that Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting armed opposition groups, allegations Asmara denies. Furthermore, the war in Sudan adds another layer of complexity. Since 2023, Sudan has been engulfed in a conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Plaut suggested that Ethiopia and Eritrea are already indirectly involved on opposing sides, with Ethiopia allegedly supporting the RSF and Eritrea, along with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, backing the SAF.

This interconnected web of alliances raises the specter of a chain reaction. Plaut warned that external powers like the UAE and Saudi Arabia have overlapping but divergent interests in the region, creating conditions where one conflict could multiply into others. “So the whole thing becomes a generalized conflict in the region,” he said.

The strategic importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical global shipping chokepoint, further amplifies the stakes. Eritrea’s control of the port of Assab gives it significant leverage, meaning any major deterioration in Ethiopia-Eritrea relations could impact wider Red Sea security.

While experts stress that a regional war is not inevitable, the humanitarian risks are severe. The previous Tigray war resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and displaced millions. Plaut cautioned that the current conflict could again become extremely bloody, though he expressed hope that the death toll would not match the previous catastrophe. As Ethiopia faces multiple armed movements and regional powers weigh in, the world watches closely to see if diplomacy can prevent a broader conflagration.