Fears Mount of Renewed War in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region

Panic is spreading across Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region that the country is sliding back into full-scale warfare, merely four years after a fragile peace agreement concluded a brutal two-year conflict. Tensions between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which holds political sway over Tigray, have escalated rapidly, with each side accusing the other of initiating new military offensives.

According to Ethiopian authorities and Tigrayan officials, armed confrontations have extended beyond Tigray’s borders into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions. In a significant development, Tigrayan forces have taken control of regional airports, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend all flights to the area.

Getachew Reda, an adviser to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, condemned the actions as an “all-out offensive” launched by Tigrayan troops against government positions. Conversely, Tigrayan leadership maintains that their military movements are defensive responses to attacks carried out by federal troops. Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) indicates that Ethiopian forces have conducted recent drone strikes targeting TPLF officials and fighters, particularly in the capital, Mekelle, and southern Tigray.

The current instability follows months of mounting friction regarding territorial disputes and the implementation of the 2022 peace accord that ended the previous war, which is estimated to have killed approximately 600,000 people. Complicating matters further, the TPLF announced on Sunday the formation of an alliance with six other armed and political groups aiming to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and install a transitional administration.

Alan Boswell, director of the International Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa program, highlighted the critical juncture facing the federal government. “The very big question next is how will the federal government respond? With total all out war? Or will we see a more measured response that tries to contain this and prevent a return to total war in Tigray?” Boswell noted.

The crisis unfolds against a backdrop of broader regional turmoil, including a three-year war in neighboring Sudan and ongoing fighting within Ethiopia’s Amhara and Oromia regions. Boswell also warned of the potential for international spillover, noting that Eritrea supports the TPLF. “If this war expands there is major risk of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea,” he said.

International and regional bodies have urged immediate de-escalation. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, chairperson of the African Union Commission, has called for an instant halt to hostilities and a return to negotiations. Meanwhile, Ervin J. Massinga, the U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia, has joined the chorus calling for restraint as fears of a renewed humanitarian and military catastrophe grow.