Exit Polls Show Far-Right AfD Leading Saxony-Anhalt Election

MAGDEBURG, Germany — Early exit polls from Sunday’s regional election in Saxony-Anhalt show the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party commanding a decisive lead, yet it remains unclear whether the group can establish the country’s first far-right state government since World War II.

Polls by public broadcasters ARD and ZDF placed the AfD at approximately 44%, a figure more than double its 2021 performance in the state. This result significantly outpaced the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s center-right party, which polled around 18.5%. The Left Party was projected to finish third with roughly 9%, while the Social Democrats and Greens each anticipated between 8% and 9%. It remained uncertain if the BSW party would clear the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation.

Although the AfD appeared to have gained substantial ground, the exit polls suggested the party fell slightly short of an absolute majority needed to govern independently. Ulrich Siegmund, the party’s 35-year-old candidate for state governor, celebrated the results on ARD. “We have written history,” Siegmund said, asserting that voters had sent a clear message that “things cannot carry on like this.”

An AfD victory would mark a significant milestone for the party, founded in 2013 as a protest movement against the European Union before shifting sharply to the right. Since 2023, the Saxony-Anhalt branch of the state Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified the local AfD as a “confirmed far-right extremist” organization. Authorities state the party’s core positions violate Germany’s constitution and are heavily influenced by the racist ideology of ethnopluralism, citing numerous anti-Muslim and antisemitic statements by its officials.

Siegmund has rejected these assessments, accusing the intelligence agency of political weaponization. He stated that an AfD-led government would either abolish or restructure the office. Despite his composed public demeanor, Der Spiegel magazine recently labeled him “Germany’s most dangerous man,” highlighting his radical platform and ties to associates with neo-Nazi backgrounds.

The party’s electoral platform has centered on a “deportation and remigration offensive,” advocating for stricter migration limits and expanded detention facilities. This mirrors concepts discussed at far-right gatherings, such as the 2023 Potsdam meeting where Austrian extremist Martin Sellner presented plans for the expulsion of non-assimilated residents.

Regardless of winning the most seats, the AfD faces a formidable obstacle known as the “firewall,” a longstanding agreement among mainstream German parties to refuse coalition partnerships with the group. Siegmund has also ruled out leading a coalition government, meaning the AfD could secure a plurality without gaining executive power—a scenario mirrored in neighboring Thuringia after the 2024 state elections.

The campaign was heavily influenced by migration concerns following a 2024 Christmas market attack in Magdeburg, where a vehicle struck revelers, killing five people. While the perpetrator was not an Islamic extremist, the incident intensified debates on immigration.

Local reactions in Magdeburg were divided. Some voters expressed support for the AfD, citing uncontrolled migration and cultural integration issues. Conversely, other residents voiced fear of the party’s extremism and concern over how an AfD government might alter the teaching of Germany’s Nazi history in schools.