Just four years after a landmark peace agreement officially ended the devastating Tigray war, violent clashes have intensified in northern Ethiopia. Days before full-scale combat resumed, several armed groups that were previously enemies formed a coalition aimed at overthrowing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government. However, the geopolitical landscape has shifted significantly since the previous conflict, with allegations of foreign meddling from multiple actors seeking to destabilize the administration.
The 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement concluded the war between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a conflict that resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths over two years. According to Negash Mohammed, a journalist with DW’s Amharic department, the accord ultimately collapsed because it excluded three critical stakeholders: Eritrea, which had fought alongside Ethiopian forces against the TPLF; Amhara militias known as Fano, who felt marginalized from the talks; and hardliners within the TPLF who viewed the peace terms as a military defeat.
Tensions further escalated when the federal government moved to forcibly disarm the Fano militias rather than addressing their political grievances. Mohammed criticized the government’s approach, stating that instead of persuading opponents, authorities aggravated existing complaints.
The current rebellion represents an unusual alliance of disparate groups, including the Oromo Liberation Army, a faction of the Ogaden National Liberation Front, various militias from the Benishangul-Gumuz region, and ethnic militant factions from Afar. While Eritrea is not an official member of this coalition, it is believed to be providing support to the rebels. Patricia Rodrigues, a senior analyst at Control Risks, described the strategic coordination among these groups as significant and alarming, though she noted the coalition may fracture due to differing ethnic interests.
Rodrigues assessed that the fighting is likely to remain confined to the northern border regions between Tigray, Amhara, and Afar, making a nationwide spread of the conflict unlikely due to logistical challenges and fragmented opposition elsewhere. She also cited the lack of sustained international engagement after 2022 as a primary cause for the resumption of hostilities. Although the TPLF surrendered heavy weapons in 2022 and 2023, global attention shifted to other crises, allowing both sides to quietly rearm. Additionally, the recent lifting of U.S. sanctions imposed during the 2020–2022 war has reduced Western leverage in pushing parties toward negotiations.
Civilians continue to bear the brunt of the violence. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) from the previous war, many still living in makeshift camps since 2020, are fleeing conflict zones once again. Reports have emerged of drone strikes on civilian areas and rebels utilizing schools and clinics for military purposes. Infrastructure has been disrupted, with telephone and internet services cut in parts of Tigray and Amhara, electricity failures, and flight suspensions to cities such as Kombolcha and Lalibela.
Outgoing UN Secretary-General António Guterres dispatched a special envoy to the Horn of Africa to mediate between the African Union, regional powers, and Egypt. Despite these efforts, Mohammed expressed skepticism that meaningful negotiations will succeed until one side realizes violence will not achieve its objectives. Rodrigues agreed, predicting that intense but geographically limited fighting will persist, with little hope that international or regional mediation will resolve the current crisis.
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